Ario Eslamshahr v Be'sat Kermanshah prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 17:02

Ario Eslamshahr 2–1 Be'sat Kermanshah DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~41%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.569

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Ario Eslamshahr v Be'sat Kermanshah
2′Much as we predicted: the draw was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 41–38–21
33′Much as we predicted: the draw was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 33–49–18
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 51% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 51% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 48% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 51% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 52% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 52% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 48% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 48% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 52% now
45′HALF-TIME Ario Eslamshahr 0–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
46′SECOND HALF Ario Eslamshahr 0–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
FTFULL TIME Ario Eslamshahr 2–1 Be'sat Kermanshah
FTArio Eslamshahr 2–1 Be'sat Kermanshah · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

Ario Eslamshahr win40%

Draw41%

Be'sat Kermanshah win19%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ario Eslamshahr

Be'sat Kermanshah

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market29%

Us41%

~~Market~~29%

We make the draw a 41% chance. The market has it at 29%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ario Eslamshahr win	40%	50%	−10
Draw	41%	29%	+11
Be'sat Kermanshah win	19%	21%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	17%	33%	−16
Both teams to score	26%	38%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	43%	60%	−17
Over 3.5 goals	6%	–	–
Ario Eslamshahr or draw	81%	79%	+1
Ario Eslamshahr clean sheet	59%	–	–
Be'sat Kermanshah clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 26.7%

0123450 26.7 11.1 3.5 1 19.3 12.8 3.0 2 9.3 4.9 3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ario Eslamshahr down, Be'sat Kermanshah across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ario Eslamshahr at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Be'sat Kermanshah away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Ario Eslamshahr, 0.53 for Be'sat Kermanshah. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARI 2–0 BES · BES 1–1 ARI · BES 0–0 ARI · ARI 2–0 BES

Form · last six in Azadegan League

ARIO ESLAMSHAHR

DWLWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

BE'SAT KERMANSHAH

LLDWLW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1