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Sumsel United v Persiku Kudus

Sumsel United

5–1Full time

Persiku Kudus

Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Gelora Sriwijaya Jakabaring

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Sumsel United 5–1 Persiku Kudus SUMSEL UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sumsel United win~~60%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.245

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sumsel United win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sumsel United was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Sumsel United v Persiku Kudus
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Sumsel United 1–0 Persiku Kudus
12′7′ and it is 1–0: R. Akbar on the scoresheet for Sumsel United. 1–0 · 82–12–5
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Sumsel United win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
22′We published Sumsel United at 60%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sumsel United 1–1 Persiku Kudus
31′Persiku Kudus ahead on 27′ through M. Isa. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–30–18
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Sumsel United win: 60% at kick-off, 52% now
41′Persiku Kudus ahead on 28′ through M. Isa. 1–1. 1–1 · 48–34–18
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sumsel United win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Sumsel United 1–1 Persiku Kudus
46′SECOND HALF Sumsel United 1–1 Persiku Kudus
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sumsel United 2–1 Persiku Kudus
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sumsel United 2–1 Persiku Kudus
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sumsel United · On: D. Hardi · Off: A. Subhi
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sumsel United · On: W. Poru · Off: F. Sokoy
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sumsel United 2–1 Persiku Kudus · T. Darmawan
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sumsel United 3–1 Persiku Kudus
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Persiku Kudus · On: K. Anam · Off: Barata
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Persiku Kudus · On: L. Oktavianto · Off: M. Kanu
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sumsel United 4–1 Persiku Kudus
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sumsel United · On: F. Firdaus · Off: Felipe Ryan
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Persiku Kudus · On: Y. A. Pamungkas · Off: M. Isa
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sumsel United · On: P. Triatmojo · Off: R. Ramadhan
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Sumsel United 5–1 Persiku Kudus
89′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sumsel United 5–1 Persiku Kudus · K. Ngwoke
FTFULL TIME Sumsel United 5–1 Persiku Kudus
FTSumsel United 5–1 Persiku Kudus · Sumsel United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sumsel United win60%

Draw22%

Persiku Kudus win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:30

Venue · Gelora Sriwijaya Jakabaring

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sumsel United

Formation not confirmed

81 R. Ramadhan

4 R. Akbar

6 T. Pangestu

10 Felipe Ryan

16 C. Bhagascara

22 T. Darmawan

25 F. Sokoy

27 A. Subhi

28 A. Satria

32 K. Ngwoke

34 F. Damara

Coach · –

Substitutes

64 · P. Triatmojo

5 · D. Atapelwa

9 · D. Hartono

11 · K. Toyo

14 · H. Mochizuki

21 · Zakaria

23 · R. Dimas

26 · K. Vedhayanto

47 · D. Hardi

55 · W. Habiby

78 · W. Poru

99 · F. Firdaus

Persiku Kudus

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Ridwan

5 N. Haji Haris

7 Barata

11 M. Isa

23 R. Akbar

25 M. Kanu

37 Z. Alamsah

45 S. Buddin

67 M. Zainun

77 I. Hadi

87 T. Adit

Coach · –

Substitutes

57 · F. D. Daniswara

8 · Y. A. Pamungkas

17 · B. Pradana

71 · K. Anam

93 · L. Oktavianto

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sumsel United

Formation not confirmed

81 R. Ramadhan

4 R. Akbar

6 T. Pangestu

10 Felipe Ryan

16 C. Bhagascara

22 T. Darmawan

25 F. Sokoy

27 A. Subhi

28 A. Satria

32 K. Ngwoke

34 F. Damara

Coach · –

Substitutes

64 · P. Triatmojo

5 · D. Atapelwa

9 · D. Hartono

11 · K. Toyo

14 · H. Mochizuki

21 · Zakaria

23 · R. Dimas

26 · K. Vedhayanto

47 · D. Hardi

55 · W. Habiby

78 · W. Poru

99 · F. Firdaus

Persiku Kudus

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Ridwan

5 N. Haji Haris

7 Barata

11 M. Isa

23 R. Akbar

25 M. Kanu

37 Z. Alamsah

45 S. Buddin

67 M. Zainun

77 I. Hadi

87 T. Adit

Coach · –

Substitutes

57 · F. D. Daniswara

8 · Y. A. Pamungkas

17 · B. Pradana

71 · K. Anam

93 · L. Oktavianto

Our number · sumsel united winPublished 10 Oct 09:34

60% The market57%

Us60%

~~Market~~57%

We make Sumsel United a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sumsel united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sumsel United win	60%	57%	+2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Persiku Kudus win	18%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Sumsel United or draw	82%	81%	0
Sumsel United clean sheet	40%	–	–
Persiku Kudus clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 5.7 2.7 1 11.2 10.2 4.7 2 10.3 9.2 4.3 3 6.6 5.9 2.7 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sumsel United down, Persiku Kudus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,089 Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sumsel United at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Persiku Kudus away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Sumsel United, 0.93 for Persiku Kudus. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 2

SUMSEL UNITED

LWDLLW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

PERSIKU KUDUS

LLLDLL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persela Lamongan	4	+10	12
2	Deltras	4	+9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	+11	10
4	RANS Nusantara	5	+6	10
5	PSPS	4	+2	9
6	Persikad Depok FC	4	−1	9
7	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	+3	8
8	Semen Padang	4	+2	7
9	PSIS Semarang	4	0	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	5	−1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	+3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	−1	4
14	Dejan	4	−2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	−2	4
16	Persiraja Banda Aceh	5	−2	3
17	Bekasi City	4	−3	1
18	Persiku Kudus	3	−7	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	−5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	−22	0