Semen Padang v PSMS Medan prediction · Liga 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Semen Padang 1–1 PSMS Medan SEMEN PADANG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Semen Padang win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Semen Padang win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Semen Padang 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Semen Padang v PSMS Medan
21′Semen Padang score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
21′Semen Padang find the net on 21′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Semen Padang 1–0 PSMS Medan
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Semen Padang 2–0 PSMS Medan
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 91% now
22′We said Semen Padang at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
30′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Semen Padang
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Semen Padang win 33%)
34′🟨 YELLOW · 27' R. Utina · PSMS Medan
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' PSMS Medan
45′HALF-TIME Semen Padang 0–0 PSMS Medan
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′SECOND HALF Semen Padang 0–0 PSMS Medan
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Semen Padang · On: A. Maring · Off: A. Slamat
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PSMS Medan · On: H. Alhafiz · Off: R. Utina
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Semen Padang
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' PSMS Medan
52′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Semen Padang
59′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Semen Padang · On: Rahmat · Off: S. Lilipaly
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Semen Padang · On: Junior · Off: I. Spasojevic
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Semen Padang
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' PSMS Medan · On: A. Alim · Off: R. Utama
68′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Semen Padang · On: A. Pangestu · Off: M. Firjatullah
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' PSMS Medan · On: I. Chan · Off: I. Jauhari
76′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' PSMS Medan
82′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Semen Padang win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Semen Padang
89′We said Semen Padang at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Semen Padang
93′PSMS Medan score on 90′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Semen Padang 0–1 PSMS Medan
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' PSMS Medan win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
104′Semen Padang find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
104′⚽ GOAL · 90+14' Semen Padang 1–1 PSMS Medan
104′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+14' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was PSMS Medan win 1%)
105′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–1 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Semen Padang 1–1 PSMS Medan
FTSemen Padang 1–1 PSMS Medan · Semen Padang win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Semen Padang are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Semen Padang 39%, draw 30%, PSMS Medan 31%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Semen Padang v PSMS MedanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Semen Padang win39%

Draw30%

PSMS Medan win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStadion GOR Haji Agus Salim

Line-ups

Semen Padang

PSMS Medan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Semen Padang

PSMS Medan

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	PSMS Medan	5	+10	10
10	Semen Padang	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Semen Padang

Formation not confirmed

12 I. Al Giffari

6 S. Lilipaly

8 M. Hargianto

9 I. Spasojevic

11 N. Setiawan

20 M. Firjatullah

26 I. Cukovic

27 S. Tahar

28 R. Hehanussa

88 A. Slamat

96 Savio Roberto

Coach · Eduardo Almeida

Substitutes

1 · M. Rani

2 · B. Kaffa

5 · E. Gutawa

7 · I. Pratama

10 · I. Mofu

18 · M. Kemaluddin

42 · A. Pangestu

66 · D. Maulana

77 · K. Botan

91 · Rahmat

93 · Junior

98 · A. Maring

PSMS Medan

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Natshir

2 R. Utina

3 A. Meneses

5 B. Arrahim

7 I. Jauhari

9 J. Siverio

10 Phillerson

14 R. Utama

15 M. Rangga

19 P. Putra

96 A. Hutagalung

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Gunandi

65 · R. Nurdin

4 · H. Alhafiz

13 · D. Saputra

17 · T. Hidayat

21 · I. Chan

24 · A. Albar

27 · R. Syahputra

28 · A. Alim

54 · D. Saputra

Our number · semen padang winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Semen Padang a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Semen Padang v PSMS Medan~~1.13 – 0.98

~~Form · Liga 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~10 v 6

~~The market · Semen Padang win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Semen Padang win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Semen Padang win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	30%	28%	+2
PSMS Medan win	31%	36%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	35%	49%	−14
Both teams to score	41%	54%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	62%	71%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	17%	29%	−12
Semen Padang or draw	69%	64%	+5
Semen Padang clean sheet	39%	–	–
PSMS Medan clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 13.3 11.7 5.8 2.0 1 13.4 12.8 6.2 2.2 2 7.6 7.1 3.5 3 3.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Semen Padang down, PSMS Medan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,098 Liga 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Semen Padang at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). PSMS Medan away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Semen Padang, 0.98 for PSMS Medan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PSM 1–1 SEM · SEM 2–0 PSM · PSM 1–2 SEM · SEM 2–2 PSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 2 this season · since 13 Sept

SEMEN PADANG

WDWLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

PSMS MEDAN

DWWWL2–2 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tornado Pekanbaru	6	+12	14
2	Persela Lamongan	5	+10	13
3	Deltras	5	+9	13
4	PSPS	5	+3	12
5	Persikad Depok FC	5	0	12
6	PSMS Medan	5	+10	10
7	RANS Nusantara	5	+6	10
8	Sumsel United	5	+2	7
9	Barito Putera	5	+1	7
10	Semen Padang	5	+1	7
11	PSIS Semarang	4	0	7
12	PSGC Ciamis	5	−4	6
13	Persis Solo	5	+3	5
14	Persipura Jayapura	5	−1	5
15	Dejan	5	−2	5
16	Bekasi City	5	+1	4
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	5	−2	3
18	Persiku Kudus	4	−11	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	6	−10	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	5	−28	0