RANS Nusantara v Persela Lamongan

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Persela Lamongan win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Persela Lamongan 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
3. 1′KICK-OFF RANS Nusantara v Persela Lamongan
4. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' RANS Nusantara
5. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 25' RANS Nusantara · On: D. Lukas · Off: R. Irawan
6. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Persela Lamongan
7. 32′🟥 RED CARD · 32' Persela Lamongan
8. 33′Persela Lamongan are down to ten from 32′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 26–31–43
9. 45′HALF-TIME RANS Nusantara 0–0 Persela Lamongan
10. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Persela Lamongan win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' RANS Nusantara · On: A. Inzaghi · Off: D. Angga
12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' RANS Nusantara · On: R. Sheva · Off: R. Setiawan
13. 46′SECOND HALF RANS Nusantara 0–0 Persela Lamongan
14. 51′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 24–39–37
15. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Persela Lamongan win 36%)
16. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 23–42–36
17. 58′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
18. 66′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–51–29
19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Persela Lamongan win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
20. 73′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
21. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Persela Lamongan · On: Ifan Nanda · Off: K. Yudo
22. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' RANS Nusantara
23. 78′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–69–19
24. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Persela Lamongan win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
25. 82′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–77–13
26. 82′A goal for RANS Nusantara on 82′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
27. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' RANS Nusantara 1–0 Persela Lamongan
28. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Persela Lamongan win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
29. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' RANS Nusantara win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
30. 83′We said Persela Lamongan at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' RANS Nusantara · On: M. Rafli · Off: D. Lukas Corrected
32. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Persela Lamongan
33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Persela Lamongan · On: Riski Boski · Off: D. Sulistyawan
34. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' RANS Nusantara
35. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Persela Lamongan · On: A. Ubaidillah · Off: Z. Arrosyid
36. FTFULL TIME RANS Nusantara 1–0 Persela Lamongan
37. FTRANS Nusantara 1–0 Persela Lamongan · Persela Lamongan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.