PSPS v PSMS Medan prediction · Liga 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

PSPS 2–1 PSMS Medan PSPS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PSPS win~~44%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.680

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

PSPS win44%

Draw25%

PSMS Medan win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueKaharudin Nasution Sport Center Rumbai Stadium

Line-ups

PSPS

PSMS Medan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

PSPS

PSMS Medan

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	PSMS Medan	4	+11	10
6	PSPS	4	+2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PSPS

Formation not confirmed

75 J. Meka

13 I. Kusuma

19 P. Trenady

5 Luiz Henrique

77 Ilham Syafri

63 A. Lubis

55 J. Riski

17 M. Yasir

8 Matheus Farinha

32 V. Ariyanto

10 Toninho

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · N. Siringo

97 · I. Fathoni

62 · D. Wicaksono

25 · A. Tuasalamony

18 · Z. Khairullah

16 · H. Pratama

15 · Z. Arya

7 · H. Depa

6 · M. Revan

4 · M. Solikin

3 · A. R. Rama

1 · Dicki Agung

PSMS Medan

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Natshir

26 R. Nurviat

5 B. Arrahim

3 A. Meneses

4 H. Alhafiz

68 F. Rahman

10 Phillerson

19 P. Putra

14 R. Utama

9 J. Siverio

7 I. Jauhari

Coach · –

Substitutes

96 · A. Hutagalung

54 · D. Saputra

28 · A. Alim

27 · R. Syahputra

24 · A. Albar

21 · I. Chan

17 · T. Hidayat

15 · M. Rangga

13 · D. Saputra

2 · R. Utina

31 · F. Quba

22 · A. Gunandi

Our number · psps winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make PSPS a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · psps win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSPS win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	25%	28%	−3
PSMS Medan win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	0
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
PSPS or draw	68%	64%	+4
PSPS clean sheet	29%	–	–
PSMS Medan clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 7.6 4.9 2.1 1 9.3 11.4 7.1 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.4 2.4 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSPS down, PSMS Medan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Liga 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSPS at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). PSMS Medan away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for PSPS, 1.28 for PSMS Medan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PSM 1–1 PSP · PSM 1–1 PSP · PSP 3–3 PSM · PSP 1–0 PSM

Form · last six in Liga 2

PSPS

WLLWWW2–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

PSMS MEDAN

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persela Lamongan	4	+10	12
2	Deltras	4	+9	12
3	Tornado Pekanbaru	5	+9	11
4	PSMS Medan	4	+11	10
5	RANS Nusantara	5	+6	10
6	PSPS	4	+2	9
7	Persikad Depok FC	4	−1	9
8	Sumsel United	5	+2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	+2	7
10	Barito Putera	5	+1	7
11	PSIS Semarang	4	0	7
12	PSGC Ciamis	5	−4	6
13	Persipura Jayapura	5	−1	5
14	Persis Solo	4	+3	4
15	Bekasi City	5	+1	4
16	Dejan	4	−2	4
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	5	−2	3
18	Persiku Kudus	4	−11	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	5	−7	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	5	−28	0