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Persipura Jayapura v Persiba Balikpapan

Persipura Jayapura

5–1Full time

Persiba Balikpapan

Liga 2 · FRI 23 OCT · Mandala Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:01

Persipura Jayapura 5–1 Persiba Balikpapan PERSIPURA JAYAPURA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persipura Jayapura win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.101

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persipura Jayapura win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persipura Jayapura 75% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 74–17–8
1′KICK-OFF Persipura Jayapura v Persiba Balikpapan
21′A goal for Persipura Jayapura on 21′. 0–0 · 68–22–9
22′We said Persipura Jayapura at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Persipura Jayapura 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Persipura Jayapura win: 75% at kick-off, 91% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–2
30′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Persiba Balikpapan · On: C. Artomoro · Off: A. Ardiana
42′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Persipura Jayapura · On: R. Sunuk · Off: J. Sroyer
45′HALF-TIME Persipura Jayapura 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
45′SECOND HALF Persipura Jayapura 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Persipura Jayapura
49′Persipura Jayapura find the net on 49′. 1–0 · 90–8–1
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persipura Jayapura · On: Y. Amohoso · Off: Osas Saha
50′We said Persipura Jayapura at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Persipura Jayapura 2–0 Persiba Balikpapan
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Persipura Jayapura win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Persiba Balikpapan · On: T. Taniguchi · Off: M. Kimura
58′Persipura Jayapura find the net on 57′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Persipura Jayapura 3–0 Persiba Balikpapan
59′We said Persipura Jayapura at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′A goal for Persipura Jayapura on 59′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Persipura Jayapura 4–0 Persiba Balikpapan
61′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Persiba Balikpapan
80′A goal for Persiba Balikpapan on 79′. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 79' Persipura Jayapura 4–1 Persiba Balikpapan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Persipura Jayapura · On: Todd Ferre · Off: G. Mandowen
84′81′: T. Nishihara on the scoresheet for Persiba Balikpapan, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Persiba Balikpapan · On: F. Royyan · Off: T. Nishihara
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Persipura Jayapura · On: R. Sanadi · Off: Alexsandro
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Persiba Balikpapan · On: E. Anwar · Off: A. Hermawan
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Persipura Jayapura
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Persiba Balikpapan · On: A. Ahmad · Off: J. Amru
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Persipura Jayapura · On: Y. Pae · Off: A. Dusay
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Persiba Balikpapan
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Persipura Jayapura
97′Persipura Jayapura find the net on 90′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
98′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Persipura Jayapura 5–1 Persiba Balikpapan
FTFULL TIME Persipura Jayapura 5–1 Persiba Balikpapan
FTPersipura Jayapura 5–1 Persiba Balikpapan · Persipura Jayapura win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persipura Jayapura are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persipura Jayapura 75%, draw 17%, Persiba Balikpapan 8%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Persipura Jayapura v Persiba BalikpapanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Persipura Jayapura win75%

Draw17%

Persiba Balikpapan win8%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMandala Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persipura Jayapura

Persiba Balikpapan

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 2

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Persipura Jayapura	6	+4	8
19	Persiba Balikpapan	6	−10	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persipura jayapura winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Persipura Jayapura a 75% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persipura Jayapura v Persiba Balikpapan~~2.31 – 0.59

~~Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 8 v 0~~10 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persipura Jayapura win

Published at 72%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persipura Jayapura win	75%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Persiba Balikpapan win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Persipura Jayapura or draw	92%	–	–
Persipura Jayapura clean sheet	56%	–	–
Persiba Balikpapan clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.2%

0123450 6.3 3.4 1 12.8 7.7 2.3 2 14.2 8.2 2.5 3 10.7 6.1 4 6.4 3.5 5 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Persipura Jayapura down, Persiba Balikpapan across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,107 Liga 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persipura Jayapura at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Persiba Balikpapan away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Persipura Jayapura, 0.59 for Persiba Balikpapan. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~Persiba Balikpapan 0–1 Persipura Jayapura · Persiba Balikpapan 1–2 Persipura Jayapura · Persipura Jayapura 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan · Persiba Balikpapan 3–1 Persipura Jayapura

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

PERSIPURA JAYAPURA

LDDWLW2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 6–1

PERSIBA BALIKPAPAN

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSPS	6	+6	15
2	Tornado Pekanbaru	6	+12	14
3	Deltras	6	+9	14
4	Persela Lamongan	6	+9	13
5	RANS Nusantara	6	+7	13
6	Persikad Depok FC	6	−1	12
7	PSMS Medan	6	+10	11
8	Sumsel United	6	+3	10
9	Barito Putera	6	+3	10
10	Persipura Jayapura	6	+4	8
11	Semen Padang	6	+1	8
12	PSIS Semarang	5	0	8
13	PSGC Ciamis	6	−4	7
14	Persis Solo	6	+3	6
15	Bekasi City	6	+1	5
16	Dejan	6	−4	5
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	6	−2	4
18	Persiku Kudus	5	−14	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	6	−10	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	6	−33	0