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Persiku Kudus v Semen Padang

Persiku Kudus

1–2Full time

Semen Padang

Liga 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Wergu Wetan Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Persiku Kudus 1–2 Semen Padang SEMEN PADANG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Semen Padang win~~42%

~~The market said~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.511

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.026

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Semen Padang win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Semen Padang was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–28–42
1′KICK-OFF Persiku Kudus v Semen Padang
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Persiku Kudus
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Semen Padang win 37%)
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Persiku Kudus
45′HALF-TIME Persiku Kudus 0–1 Semen Padang
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Semen Padang win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
46′SECOND HALF Persiku Kudus 0–1 Semen Padang
47′A goal for Semen Padang on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
47′We published Semen Padang at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–75
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Persiku Kudus 0–1 Semen Padang
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Semen Padang win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Semen Padang win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 43%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Semen Padang
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Semen Padang
54′Persiku Kudus score on 54′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–48–29
54′We said Semen Padang at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–48–29
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Persiku Kudus 1–1 Semen Padang
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Semen Padang win: 42% at kick-off, 29% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Semen Padang win 77%)
64′We said Semen Padang at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–56–24
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Semen Padang · On: S. Lilipaly · Off: Rahmat
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Persiku Kudus
67′Semen Padang find the net on 66′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–82
67′We published Semen Padang at 42%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–2 · 2–15–82
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Persiku Kudus 1–2 Semen Padang
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Semen Padang win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Semen Padang win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 58%)
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–15–83
72′We published Semen Padang at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Persiku Kudus · On: Y. A. Pamungkas · Off: I. Veras
80′We published Semen Padang at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Persiku Kudus · On: K. Anam · Off: M. Isa
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Semen Padang win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Semen Padang · On: I. Spasojevic · Off: Junior
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Semen Padang · On: D. Maulana · Off: M. Hargianto
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Persiku Kudus
86′We published Semen Padang at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Semen Padang
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Semen Padang · On: I. Pratama · Off: M. Firjatullah
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Semen Padang · On: G. Zola · Off: A. Maring
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Persiku Kudus · On: B. Pradana · Off: M. Zainun
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Semen Padang
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Persiku Kudus
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Semen Padang
FTFULL TIME Persiku Kudus 1–2 Semen Padang
FTPersiku Kudus 1–2 Semen Padang · Semen Padang win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Semen Padang are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persiku Kudus 31%, draw 28%, Semen Padang 42%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Persiku Kudus v Semen PadangBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Persiku Kudus win31%

Draw28%

Semen Padang win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueWergu Wetan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persiku Kudus

Semen Padang

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Semen Padang	6	+1	8
18	Persiku Kudus	5	−14	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · semen padang winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

42% The market87%

Us42%

~~Market~~87%

We make Semen Padang a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 45 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persiku Kudus v Semen Padang~~1.08 – 1.33

~~Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~18 v 11

~~The market · Semen Padang win~~87% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Semen Padang win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persiku Kudus win	31%	4%	+27
Draw	28%	9%	+19
Semen Padang win	42%	87%	−45
Over 2.5 goals	43%	80%	−37
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	65%	−42
Persiku Kudus or draw	58%	13%	+45
Persiku Kudus clean sheet	28%	–	–
Semen Padang clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 10.2 11.8 7.8 3.6 1 9.7 12.4 7.7 3.5 2 5.5 6.6 4.2 3 2.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persiku Kudus down, Semen Padang across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Liga 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Persiku Kudus at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Semen Padang away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Persiku Kudus, 1.33 for Semen Padang. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

PERSIKU KUDUS

DLLLL1–1 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–4

SEMEN PADANG

WDWLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSPS	7	+7	18
2	Tornado Pekanbaru	6	+12	14
3	Deltras	6	+9	14
4	Persela Lamongan	6	+9	13
5	RANS Nusantara	6	+7	13
6	Barito Putera	7	+6	13
7	Persikad Depok FC	7	−2	12
8	PSMS Medan	6	+10	11
9	Persipura Jayapura	7	+8	11
10	Sumsel United	6	+3	10
11	Semen Padang	6	+1	8
12	PSIS Semarang	5	0	8
13	PSGC Ciamis	6	−4	7
14	Persis Solo	6	+3	6
15	Bekasi City	6	+1	5
16	Dejan	6	−4	5
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	6	−2	4
18	Persiku Kudus	5	−14	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	7	−14	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	7	−36	0