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Persiba Balikpapan v Tornado Pekanbaru

Persiba Balikpapan
0–3Full time
Tornado Pekanbaru

Liga 2 · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion Batakan

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31
Persiba Balikpapan 0–3 Tornado Pekanbaru TORNADO PEKANBARU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tornado Pekanbaru win56%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.294
The market’s Brier score0.127

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tornado Pekanbaru win at 56%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tornado Pekanbaru 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 18–25–57
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Persiba Balikpapan v Tornado Pekanbaru
  4. 5′Tornado Pekanbaru find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Persiba Balikpapan 0–1 Tornado Pekanbaru
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Tornado Pekanbaru win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 6′We said Tornado Pekanbaru at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–82
  9. 42′Tornado Pekanbaru find the net on 42′. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  10. 45′41′: O. Camara on the scoresheet for Tornado Pekanbaru. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Persiba Balikpapan 0–2 Tornado Pekanbaru
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Persiba Balikpapan 0–2 Tornado Pekanbaru
  13. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persiba Balikpapan · On: T. Nishihara · Off: A. Ahmad
  14. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persiba Balikpapan · On: F. Cameron · Off: A. Rachman
  15. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 45+9' Tornado Pekanbaru
  16. 54′Tornado Pekanbaru score on 54′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  17. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Persiba Balikpapan 0–3 Tornado Pekanbaru
  18. 55′We said Tornado Pekanbaru at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  19. 55′We said Tornado Pekanbaru at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Persiba Balikpapan · On: Y. Al Makassar · Off: E. Anwar
  21. 56′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  22. 57′We said Tornado Pekanbaru at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  23. 57′⚽ GOAL · 41' Persiba Balikpapan 0–2 Tornado Pekanbaru · O. Camara (assist Y. Alkanza)
  24. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Tornado Pekanbaru win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
  25. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Tornado Pekanbaru · On: R. Lastori · Off: Y. Alkanza
  26. 63′Tornado Pekanbaru find the net on 63′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Persiba Balikpapan · On: A. Hermawan · Off: B. Cesar
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tornado Pekanbaru · On: R. Pangestu · Off: Patrick Corrected
  29. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tornado Pekanbaru · On: A. Diaz · Off: O. Camara
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tornado Pekanbaru · On: D. Nofiansyah · Off: R. Aprianto
  31. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Persiba Balikpapan
  32. 90′0–3 at the end. Our 56% on Tornado Pekanbaru comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  33. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Persiba Balikpapan · On: Y. Firdanna · Off: V. Uzlah
  34. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tornado Pekanbaru · On: A. Oktaviansyah · Off: I. Hajar
  35. FTFULL TIME Persiba Balikpapan 0–3 Tornado Pekanbaru
  36. FTPersiba Balikpapan 0–3 Tornado Pekanbaru · Tornado Pekanbaru win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tornado Pekanbaru are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persiba Balikpapan 19%, draw 25%, Tornado Pekanbaru 56%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Persiba Balikpapan v Tornado PekanbaruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Persiba Balikpapan win19%
Draw25%
Tornado Pekanbaru win56%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStadion Batakan

Line-ups

Persiba Balikpapan

Tornado Pekanbaru

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persiba Balikpapan

Tornado Pekanbaru

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Tornado Pekanbaru5+911
19Persiba Balikpapan5−70

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Persiba Balikpapan

Formation not confirmed

1 Pancar

7 A. Rachman

20 C. Seran

6 T. Taniguchi

24 V. Uzlah

19 A. Ardiana

8 B. Cesar

29 G. Arya

91 A. Ahmad

85 E. Anwar

41 R. Yoshihama

Coach · –

Substitutes

67 · A. Hermawan

37 · F. Cameron

32 · I. Romadhona

27 · M. Kimura

25 · C. Artomoro

23 · Y. Al Makassar

18 · A. Mukhram

14 · F. Alif

10 · T. Nishihara

13 · R. Sudirman

5 · Y. Firdanna

4 · M. Ilham

Tornado Pekanbaru

Formation not confirmed

34 T. Hamdani

13 A. Prasetyo

57 A. Firmansyah

27 D. Sukarno

4 F. Afriyanto

6 R. Aprianto

11 Y. Alkanza

22 I. Hajar

99 O. Camara

16 I. Siregar

9 Patrick

Coach · –

Substitutes

86 · R. Lastori

46 · F. Wahyu

33 · J. Kurniady

31 · B. Walidain

24 · M. Fatchu Rochman

20 · J. Al Ghony

19 · D. Nofiansyah

17 · R. Lesmana

14 · A. Diaz

12 · D. Rizky

37 · E. Deva

8 · A. Oktaviansyah

Our number · tornado pekanbaru winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
56% The market71%
Us56%
Market71%

We make Tornado Pekanbaru a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Persiba Balikpapan v Tornado Pekanbaru0.78 – 1.60
Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 SeptW0 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L0
Table places · points 0 v 1119 v 5
The market · Tornado Pekanbaru win71% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 12:44
Our probability · Tornado Pekanbaru win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Persiba Balikpapan win19%10%+9
Draw25%19%+6
Tornado Pekanbaru win56%71%−15
Over 2.5 goals42%57%−15
Both teams to score42%46%−4
Over 1.5 goals68%78%−10
Over 3.5 goals22%36%−14
Persiba Balikpapan or draw44%29%+15
Persiba Balikpapan clean sheet21%––
Tornado Pekanbaru clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%
0123450 10.0 14.6 11.5 6.3 2.7 1 7.3 11.3 8.6 4.6 2 3.0 4.5 3.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Persiba Balikpapan down, Tornado Pekanbaru across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsTOR 3–0 PER · PER 1–3 TOR · TOR 2–0 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

PERSIBA BALIKPAPAN

LLLLL2–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

TORNADO PEKANBARU

WDDWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 6–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persela Lamongan5+1013
2Deltras5+913
3PSPS5+312
4Persikad Depok FC5012
5Tornado Pekanbaru5+911
6PSMS Medan5+1010
7RANS Nusantara5+610
8Sumsel United5+27
9Barito Putera5+17
10Semen Padang5+17
11PSIS Semarang407
12PSGC Ciamis5−46
13Persis Solo5+35
14Persipura Jayapura5−15
15Dejan5−25
16Bekasi City5+14
17Persiraja Banda Aceh5−23
18Persiku Kudus4−111
19Persiba Balikpapan5−70
20PSBS Biak Numfor5−280

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.