Persela Lamongan v Deltras prediction · Liga 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Persela Lamongan 1–1 Deltras PERSELA LAMONGAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persela Lamongan win~~53%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persela Lamongan win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persela Lamongan 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
27′Little has changed for our model: Persela Lamongan 53% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–21
41′Deltras are down to ten from 38′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 42–37–20
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
45′We said Persela Lamongan at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–40–20
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Persela Lamongan win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Persela Lamongan 0–0 Deltras
46′SECOND HALF Persela Lamongan 0–0 Deltras
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persela Lamongan · On: K. Yudo · Off: Riski Boski
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Persela Lamongan 1–0 Deltras
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Persela Lamongan 1–1 Deltras
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Persela Lamongan
FTFULL TIME Persela Lamongan 1–1 Deltras
FTPersela Lamongan 1–1 Deltras · Persela Lamongan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Persela Lamongan win53%

Draw25%

Deltras win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:30

VenueStadion Surajaya

Line-ups

Persela Lamongan

Deltras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Persela Lamongan

Deltras

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persela Lamongan	4	+10	12
2	Deltras	4	+9	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Persela Lamongan

Formation not confirmed

21 R. Mahreza

57 R. Drajat

20 Goncalves

25 A. Showwam

64 Z. Arrosyid

12 H. Siswanto

7 M. Hambali

22 D. Sulistyawan

10 Caique Souza

80 Riski Boski

9 Juninho

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · M. F. Putra

88 · A. A. Raharjo

99 · K. Yudo

78 · H. Ardiansyah

71 · A. Ubaidillah

56 · Y. W. Pratama

50 · S. Widyansyah

29 · M. Syukron

18 · I. Rianto

17 · R. Arianto

8 · H. Riza

27 · E. Saputro

Deltras

Formation not confirmed

29 S. Reimas

26 M. Merauje

4 Taher Jahanbakhsh

13 M. Idris

16 R. Rahardjo

87 S. Fajar

77 Rian Lopes

30 N. A. Pramana

8 A. Krisna

11 W. Pratama

10 M. Hassan

Coach · –

Substitutes

28 · G. Kritanto

27 · R. Juniar

25 · K. Dedi

22 · I. Pratama

20 · A. Rahman

19 · R. Pellu

15 · A. Dwi

9 · M. Irman

3 · B. Nirwanto

33 · A. Rohim

35 · R. Saputra

31 · C. Deo

Our number · persela lamongan winPublished 11 Oct 09:34

53% The market45%

Us53%

~~Market~~45%

We make Persela Lamongan a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · persela lamongan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persela Lamongan win	53%	45%	+8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Deltras win	22%	28%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	60%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	38%	−12
Persela Lamongan or draw	78%	72%	+6
Persela Lamongan clean sheet	40%	–	–
Deltras clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 7.5 3.5 1 12.6 11.5 5.3 2 10.0 8.9 4.2 3 5.4 4.8 2.3 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persela Lamongan down, Deltras across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Liga 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persela Lamongan at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deltras away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Persela Lamongan, 0.93 for Deltras. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEL 1–2 PER · DEL 1–2 PER · PER 1–2 DEL · DEL 2–2 PER

Form · last six in Liga 2

PERSELA LAMONGAN

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 1–0

DELTRAS

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persela Lamongan	4	+10	12
2	Deltras	4	+9	12
3	Tornado Pekanbaru	5	+9	11
4	PSMS Medan	4	+11	10
5	RANS Nusantara	5	+6	10
6	PSPS	4	+2	9
7	Persikad Depok FC	4	−1	9
8	Sumsel United	5	+2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	+2	7
10	Barito Putera	5	+1	7
11	PSIS Semarang	4	0	7
12	PSGC Ciamis	5	−4	6
13	Persipura Jayapura	5	−1	5
14	Persis Solo	4	+3	4
15	Bekasi City	5	+1	4
16	Dejan	4	−2	4
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	5	−2	3
18	Persiku Kudus	4	−11	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	5	−7	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	5	−28	0