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Bekasi City v Sumsel United

Bekasi City

1–1Full time

Sumsel United

Liga 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Purnawarman Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Bekasi City 1–1 Sumsel United BEKASI CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bekasi City win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bekasi City win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bekasi City 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Bekasi City v Sumsel United
11′Sumsel United find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–25–51
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bekasi City 0–1 Sumsel United
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 25% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Sumsel United win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Bekasi City win 49%)
12′We said Bekasi City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–25–51
13′We said Bekasi City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Sumsel United
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Bekasi City win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sumsel United win 51%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Bekasi City
45′HALF-TIME Bekasi City 0–0 Sumsel United
46′We said Bekasi City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
46′SECOND HALF Bekasi City 0–0 Sumsel United
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bekasi City win 40%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–46–19
57′We said Bekasi City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
65′Bekasi City find the net on 64′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
65′We said Bekasi City at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Bekasi City 1–0 Sumsel United
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 84% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Bekasi City win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 54%)
68′We said Bekasi City at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Sumsel United
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bekasi City · On: R. Winchester · Off: R. Selang
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sumsel United · On: D. Hardi · Off: H. Mochizuki
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sumsel United · On: D. Hartono · Off: T. Pangestu
71′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Bekasi City · On: Jackson Tiwu · Off: R. Saputro
78′We said Bekasi City at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Sumsel United
85′We said Bekasi City at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sumsel United · On: F. Firdaus · Off: K. Ngwoke
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sumsel United · On: Zakaria · Off: T. Darmawan
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Bekasi City · On: M. Zakaria · Off: H. Ibrahim
98′A goal for Sumsel United on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
98′We said Bekasi City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Bekasi City 1–1 Sumsel United
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+8' Bekasi City win: 51% at kick-off, 2% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Bekasi City win 99%)
FTFULL TIME Bekasi City 1–1 Sumsel United
FTBekasi City 1–1 Sumsel United · Bekasi City win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bekasi City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bekasi City 51%, draw 25%, Sumsel United 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bekasi City v Sumsel UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bekasi City win51%

Draw25%

Sumsel United win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenuePurnawarman Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bekasi City

Sumsel United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sumsel United	6	+3	10
15	Bekasi City	6	+1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bekasi city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Bekasi City a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bekasi City v Sumsel United~~1.62 – 1.00

~~Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~15 v 10

~~The market · Bekasi City win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bekasi City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bekasi City win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Sumsel United win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Bekasi City or draw	77%	71%	+6
Bekasi City clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sumsel United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 8.1 7.2 3.7 1 11.6 11.7 5.7 2 9.4 9.0 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bekasi City down, Sumsel United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Liga 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bekasi City at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sumsel United away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Bekasi City, 1.00 for Sumsel United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SUM 1–1 BEK · SUM 2–1 BEK · BEK 1–0 SUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

BEKASI CITY

DLLLWD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

SUMSEL UNITED

DLLWWW2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSPS	7	+7	18
2	Tornado Pekanbaru	6	+12	14
3	Deltras	6	+9	14
4	Persela Lamongan	6	+9	13
5	RANS Nusantara	6	+7	13
6	Barito Putera	7	+6	13
7	Persikad Depok FC	7	−2	12
8	PSMS Medan	6	+10	11
9	Persipura Jayapura	7	+8	11
10	Sumsel United	6	+3	10
11	Semen Padang	6	+1	8
12	PSIS Semarang	5	0	8
13	PSGC Ciamis	6	−4	7
14	Persis Solo	6	+3	6
15	Bekasi City	6	+1	5
16	Dejan	6	−4	5
17	Persiraja Banda Aceh	6	−2	4
18	Persiku Kudus	5	−14	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	7	−14	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	7	−36	0