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Barito Putera v Persiba Balikpapan

Barito Putera

2–0Full time

Persiba Balikpapan

Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Demang Lehman Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Barito Putera 2–0 Persiba Balikpapan BARITO PUTERA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Barito Putera win~~70%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.134

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barito Putera win at 70%.
0′KICK-OFF Barito Putera v Persiba Balikpapan
2′Little has changed for our model: Barito Putera 70% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–18–10
42′We said Barito Putera at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–32–12
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Barito Putera win: 70% at kick-off, 57% now
45′SECOND HALF Barito Putera 0–0 Persiba Balikpapan
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persiba Balikpapan · On: A. Mukhram · Off: E. Anwar
66′We said Barito Putera at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Barito Putera
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Barito Putera win: 70% at kick-off, 39% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Barito Putera win 39%)
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Barito Putera
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Daffa · Barito Putera
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barito Putera · On: N. Santoso · Off: A. Mahpud
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barito Putera · On: A. Iskandar · Off: R. Angga
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Barito Putera · On: B. Reksa · Off: R. Nico
84′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persiba Balikpapan · On: A. Mukhram · Off: E. Anwar
84′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Persiba Balikpapan · On: C. Artomoro · Off: J. Amru
84′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Alves Renan · Barito Putera
84′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Daffa · Barito Putera
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barito Putera · On: N. Santoso · Off: A. Mahpud
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barito Putera · On: A. Iskandar · Off: R. Angga
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Barito Putera · On: B. Reksa · Off: R. Nico
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Barito Putera 0–0 Persiba Balikpapan
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Barito Putera 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
87′Barito Putera ahead on 84′ through Murilo. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barito Putera · On: G. Edginataqi · Off: K. Howay
87′⚽ GOAL · 84' Barito Putera 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Barito Putera win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Barito Putera win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
88′⚽ GOAL · 84' Barito Putera 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan · Murilo
91′⚽ GOAL · 93' Barito Putera 1–0 Persiba Balikpapan
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Barito Putera 2–0 Persiba Balikpapan · Murilo
FTFULL TIME Barito Putera 2–0 Persiba Balikpapan
FTBarito Putera 2–0 Persiba Balikpapan · Barito Putera win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Barito Putera win70%

Draw18%

Persiba Balikpapan win11%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Demang Lehman Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Barito Putera

Formation not confirmed

86 S. Tama

18 R. Nico

29 I. Gwijangge

36 Alves Renan

24 A. Daffa

34 A. Mahpud

8 K. Howay

79 K. Nagashima

31 Murilo

9 R. Angga

13 B. Pradana

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · D. Maulana

71 · A. Iskandar

66 · S. Rifai

55 · B. Reksa

25 · R. Pambudi

6 · N. Santoso

7 · Gustur CP

17 · Ferdiansyah

20 · W. Ramdhani

26 · R. Pora

30 · G. Edginataqi

19 · B. Kahfi

Persiba Balikpapan

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Sudirman

27 M. Kimura

6 T. Taniguchi

20 C. Seran

7 A. Rachman

85 E. Anwar

8 B. Cesar

41 R. Yoshihama

29 G. Arya

66 J. Amru

10 T. Nishihara

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · A. Ahmad

32 · I. Romadhona

25 · C. Artomoro

24 · V. Uzlah

23 · Y. Al Makassar

18 · A. Mukhram

17 · A. Mujtaba

16 · F. Royyan

5 · Y. Firdanna

4 · M. Ilham

1 · Pancar

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Barito Putera

Formation not confirmed

86 S. Tama

18 R. Nico

29 I. Gwijangge

36 Alves Renan

24 A. Daffa

34 A. Mahpud

8 K. Howay

79 K. Nagashima

31 Murilo

9 R. Angga

13 B. Pradana

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · D. Maulana

71 · A. Iskandar

66 · S. Rifai

55 · B. Reksa

25 · R. Pambudi

6 · N. Santoso

7 · Gustur CP

17 · Ferdiansyah

20 · W. Ramdhani

26 · R. Pora

30 · G. Edginataqi

19 · B. Kahfi

Persiba Balikpapan

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Sudirman

27 M. Kimura

6 T. Taniguchi

20 C. Seran

7 A. Rachman

85 E. Anwar

8 B. Cesar

41 R. Yoshihama

29 G. Arya

66 J. Amru

10 T. Nishihara

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · A. Ahmad

32 · I. Romadhona

25 · C. Artomoro

24 · V. Uzlah

23 · Y. Al Makassar

18 · A. Mukhram

17 · A. Mujtaba

16 · F. Royyan

5 · Y. Firdanna

4 · M. Ilham

1 · Pancar

Our number · barito putera winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

70% The market62%

Us70%

~~Market~~62%

We make Barito Putera a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barito putera win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barito Putera win	70%	62%	+9
Draw	18%	22%	−3
Persiba Balikpapan win	11%	17%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	53%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Barito Putera or draw	89%	83%	+5
Barito Putera clean sheet	51%	–	–
Persiba Balikpapan clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.9%

0123450 6.3 4.2 1 12.4 8.5 3.0 2 12.9 8.7 3.1 3 9.3 6.2 2.2 4 5.3 3.5 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Barito Putera down, Persiba Balikpapan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,089 Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barito Putera at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Persiba Balikpapan away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Barito Putera, 0.69 for Persiba Balikpapan. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BAR 3–3 PER · PER 1–0 BAR · BAR 3–0 PER

Form · last six in Liga 2

BARITO PUTERA

DWWLDL1–1 · 8–3 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

PERSIBA BALIKPAPAN

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persela Lamongan	4	+10	12
2	Deltras	4	+9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	+11	10
4	RANS Nusantara	5	+6	10
5	PSPS	4	+2	9
6	Persikad Depok FC	4	−1	9
7	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	+3	8
8	Semen Padang	4	+2	7
9	PSIS Semarang	4	0	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	5	−1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	+3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	−1	4
14	Dejan	4	−2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	−2	4
16	Persiraja Banda Aceh	5	−2	3
17	Bekasi City	4	−3	1
18	Persiku Kudus	3	−7	1
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	−5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	−22	0