PSS Sleman v Pusamania Borneo prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PSS SlemanDrawPusamania Borneo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pusamania Borneo 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pusamania Borneo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSS Sleman 27%, draw 24%, Pusamania Borneo 49%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on PSS Sleman v Pusamania BorneoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

PSS Sleman win27%

Draw24%

Pusamania Borneo win49%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMaguwoharjo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSS Sleman

Pusamania Borneo

5Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 21 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pusamania borneo winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

49% The market40%

Us49%

~~Market~~40%

We make Pusamania Borneo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PSS Sleman v Pusamania Borneo~~1.24 – 1.75

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~15 v 13

~~The market · Pusamania Borneo win~~40% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pusamania Borneo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSS Sleman win	27%	32%	−5
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Pusamania Borneo win	49%	40%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
PSS Sleman or draw	51%	60%	−9
PSS Sleman clean sheet	18%	–	–
Pusamania Borneo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 8.6 7.6 4.5 2.0 1 6.2 11.0 9.2 5.4 2.4 2 4.0 6.6 5.6 3.3 3 2.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSS Sleman down, Pusamania Borneo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSS Sleman at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pusamania Borneo away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for PSS Sleman, 1.75 for Pusamania Borneo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUS 1–0 PSS · PSS 1–1 PUS · PSS 0–1 PUS · PUS 1–0 PSS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PSS SLEMAN

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

PUSAMANIA BORNEO

LWLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1