PSS Sleman v PSM Makassar prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

PSS Sleman 3–0 PSM Makassar PSS SLEMAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PSS Sleman win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PSS Sleman win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: PSS Sleman 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
26′Little has changed for our model: PSS Sleman 40% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–32
34′A goal for PSS Sleman on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′H. Tanaka scores for PSS Sleman on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′We said PSS Sleman at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
45′SECOND HALF PSS Sleman 1–0 PSM Makassar
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 47' PSM Makassar · On: G. Pagamo · Off: R. Pratama
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PSM Makassar · On: R. Fandi · Off: A. Raehan
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' PSM Makassar
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' PSS Sleman win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' PSS Sleman · On: K. Kurniawan · Off: A. Alfareza
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' PSM Makassar · On: F. Aditia · Off: S. Jevtoski
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' PSM Makassar · On: L. Cumic · Off: L. Veldwijk
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' PSS Sleman · On: M. Lorenzen · Off: M. Bagayoko
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' PSS Sleman · On: Matheus Fornazari · Off: Gustavo Tocantins
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' PSM Makassar · On: K. Tanaka · Off: H. Herdiana
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' PSS Sleman · On: J. Mulyana · Off: C. Mutzi
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' N. Lalic · PSM Makassar
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' PSS Sleman 2–0 PSM Makassar · H. Tanaka
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' PSS Sleman 2–0 PSM Makassar
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' PSS Sleman 3–0 PSM Makassar · H. Tanaka
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' PSS Sleman 3–0 PSM Makassar
FTFULL TIME PSS Sleman 3–0 PSM Makassar
FTPSS Sleman 3–0 PSM Makassar · PSS Sleman win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

PSS Sleman win40%

Draw26%

PSM Makassar win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:30

VenueMaguwoharjo Stadium

Line-ups

PSS Sleman

PSM Makassar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

PSS Sleman

PSM Makassar

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PSS Sleman

Formation not confirmed

1 Pedro Caracoci

55 C. Nduwarugira

4 Cleberson

6 K. Gomes

28 A. Alfareza

25 R. Simanjuntak

7 H. Tanaka

76 D. Dion

8 M. Bagayoko

11 Gustavo Tocantins

72 C. Mutzi

Coach · Pieter Huistra

Substitutes

43 · E. Rizky

16 · S. Alfarid

74 · F. Ahmad

3 · Lucao

73 · J. Mulyana

19 · F. Aryanto

30 · I. Abdillah

27 · M. Madjar

23 · K. Kurniawan

88 · M. Lorenzen

18 · Matheus Fornazari

97 · M. Drajad

PSM Makassar

Formation not confirmed

97 Hilmansyah

27 H. Herdiana

43 N. Lalic

94 D. Lagator

22 Victor Luiz

10 N. Foor

8 S. Jevtoski

88 A. Raehan

24 R. Pratama

7 L. Veldwijk

11 L. Bulatovic

Coach · Darije Kalezic

Substitutes

1 · Ardiansyah

71 · M. Hidayat

47 · A. Mannan

48 · M. Arfan

17 · R. Bakri

45 · A. Tanjung

6 · R. Fandi

29 · F. Aditia

18 · G. Pagamo

81 · A. Rahaman

14 · K. Tanaka

9 · L. Cumic

Our number · pss sleman winPublished 11 Oct 09:34

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make PSS Sleman a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pss sleman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSS Sleman win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
PSM Makassar win	34%	31%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	50%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	73%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
PSS Sleman or draw	66%	69%	−3
PSS Sleman clean sheet	26%	–	–
PSM Makassar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 7.5 5.4 2.5 1 8.2 11.9 7.7 3.6 2 6.4 8.4 5.7 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSS Sleman down, PSM Makassar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,572 Liga 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSS Sleman at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). PSM Makassar away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for PSS Sleman, 1.37 for PSM Makassar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PSS 3–1 PSM · PSM 1–1 PSS · PSM 2–1 PSS · PSS 1–1 PSM

Form · last six in Liga 1

PSS SLEMAN

WWWLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

PSM MAKASSAR

LLLLDD0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	4	+7	12
2	Dewa United	4	+4	10
3	Bali United	4	+8	9
4	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
5	Persita	4	+2	8
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
8	Arema FC	4	+4	6
9	Bhayangkara FC	4	+2	6
10	Persib Bandung	3	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	4	−1	6
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
13	Garudayaksa	4	−3	2
14	Java United	3	−2	1
15	PSIM Yogyakarta	4	−6	1
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0
17	Persijap	4	−9	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	0