PSM Makassar v Persebaya Surabaya prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 12:00

PSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya PERSEBAYA SURABAYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persebaya Surabaya win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persebaya Surabaya win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persebaya Surabaya 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF PSM Makassar v Persebaya Surabaya
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Persebaya Surabaya
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Persebaya Surabaya win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME PSM Makassar 0–0 Persebaya Surabaya
45′SECOND HALF PSM Makassar 0–0 Persebaya Surabaya
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Persebaya Surabaya win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–46–29
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persebaya Surabaya · On: Alex · Off: Ramalho
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persebaya Surabaya · On: T. Firmansyah · Off: R. Irianto
56′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 24–47–28
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' PSM Makassar · On: R. Fandi · Off: S. Aguero
65′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Persebaya Surabaya · On: F. Rivera · Off: Y. Mabella
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Persebaya Surabaya · On: S. Ramdani · Off: R. Pratama
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Persebaya Surabaya win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
72′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
74′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' PSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Persebaya Surabaya win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' PSM Makassar win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 67%)
75′PSM Makassar score on 74′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PSM Makassar · On: R. Bakri · Off: F. Aditia
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Persebaya Surabaya win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Persebaya Surabaya · On: A. Catur · Off: S. Lasinari
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' PSM Makassar · On: N. Foor · Off: S. Jevtoski
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' PSM Makassar · On: A. Mannan · Off: N. Lalic
96′PENALTY MISSED · 90+6' Persebaya Surabaya
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' PSM Makassar
100′PENALTY MISSED · 90+9' Persebaya Surabaya
107′🟥 RED CARD · 90+17' PSM Makassar
FTFULL TIME PSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya
FTPSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya · Persebaya Surabaya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSM Makassar 33%, draw 27%, Persebaya Surabaya 40%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on PSM Makassar v Persebaya SurabayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

PSM Makassar win33%

Draw27%

Persebaya Surabaya win40%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueGelora BJ Habibie

Line-ups

PSM Makassar

Persebaya Surabaya

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSM Makassar

Persebaya Surabaya

6Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
13	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PSM Makassar

Formation not confirmed

1 Ardiansyah

71 M. Hidayat

43 N. Lalic

2 Aloisio Neto

22 Victor Luiz

29 F. Aditia

16 S. Aguero

8 S. Jevtoski

24 R. Pratama

11 L. Bulatovic

7 L. Veldwijk

Coach · Darije Kalezic

Substitutes

51 · S. Syamsuddin

27 · H. Herdiana

47 · A. Mannan

48 · M. Arfan

17 · R. Bakri

10 · N. Foor

88 · A. Raehan

6 · R. Fandi

77 · R. Aditya

18 · G. Pagamo

81 · A. Rahaman

9 · L. Cumic

Persebaya Surabaya

Formation not confirmed

30 R. Arya

22 S. Lasinari

5 R. Mitrevski

4 Y. Fernandes

17 Jefferson

53 R. Irianto

40 Gledson

20 Ramalho

11 M. Pereira

14 Y. Mabella

16 R. Pratama

Coach · Bernardo Tavares

Substitutes

21 · E. Ari

33 · K. Ari

2 · A. Catur

72 · A. Maulana

68 · T. Firmansyah

66 · Dicky Kurniawan

31 · Y. Meilana

55 · S. Putra

42 · S. Ramdani

7 · F. Rivera

39 · Alex

Our number · persebaya surabaya winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Persebaya Surabaya a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PSM Makassar v Persebaya Surabaya~~1.22 – 1.38

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~13 v 8

~~The market · Persebaya Surabaya win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persebaya Surabaya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSM Makassar win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Persebaya Surabaya win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
PSM Makassar or draw	60%	55%	+5
PSM Makassar clean sheet	26%	–	–
Persebaya Surabaya clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.9 7.0 3.3 1 8.8 12.7 8.3 3.9 2 5.6 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.3 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSM Makassar down, Persebaya Surabaya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Liga 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSM Makassar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Persebaya Surabaya away: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for PSM Makassar, 1.38 for Persebaya Surabaya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PER 1–0 PSM · PSM 1–1 PER · PSM 0–1 PER · PER 1–1 PSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PSM MAKASSAR

LDDLW1–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

PERSEBAYA SURABAYA

DWDWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Bali United	6	+12	12
4	Persita	5	+3	11
5	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
6	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
7	Persib Bandung	5	+3	10
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
10	Java United	6	0	6
11	Arema FC	6	−2	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
13	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1
18	Persijap	6	−12	0