PSIM Yogyakarta v PSM Makassar prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 12:01

PSIM Yogyakarta 1–2 PSM Makassar PSIM YOGYAKARTA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PSIM Yogyakarta win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.712

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.656

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PSIM Yogyakarta win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: PSIM Yogyakarta 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
1′KICK-OFF PSIM Yogyakarta v PSM Makassar
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' PSIM Yogyakarta
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was PSIM Yogyakarta win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME PSIM Yogyakarta 0–0 PSM Makassar
47′SECOND HALF PSIM Yogyakarta 0–0 PSM Makassar
50′We said PSIM Yogyakarta at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 PSM Makassar
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' PSIM Yogyakarta win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' PSM Makassar win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
51′PSM Makassar find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' PSIM Yogyakarta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–46–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
59′We said PSIM Yogyakarta at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–49–23 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' PSM Makassar · On: H. Herdiana · Off: M. Hidayat
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' PSM Makassar
65′We said PSIM Yogyakarta at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
66′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–96
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–2 PSM Makassar
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' PSIM Yogyakarta win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
67′A goal for PSM Makassar on 66′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: R. Hardiawan · Off: R. Cahyana
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: R. Abiyoso · Off: A. Fadilah
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: Y. Yamadera · Off: F. Ramos Mingo
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' PSM Makassar
80′PSM Makassar are down to ten from 79′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–10–89
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' PSIM Yogyakarta 1–2 PSM Makassar
83′82′: Ze Valente on the scoresheet for PSIM Yogyakarta, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: M. Iqbal · Off: M. Caballero
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: A. Dalmau · Off: S. Sheva
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSM Makassar · On: A. Tanjung · Off: F. Aditia
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSM Makassar · On: N. Foor · Off: S. Aguero
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' PSM Makassar · On: R. Bakri · Off: R. Pratama
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' PSM Makassar · On: K. Tanaka · Off: L. Veldwijk
FTFULL TIME PSIM Yogyakarta 1–2 PSM Makassar
FTPSIM Yogyakarta 1–2 PSM Makassar · PSIM Yogyakarta win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PSIM Yogyakarta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSIM Yogyakarta 41%, draw 27%, PSM Makassar 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on PSIM Yogyakarta v PSM MakassarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

PSIM Yogyakarta win41%

Draw27%

PSM Makassar win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueMandala Krida Stadium

Line-ups

PSIM Yogyakarta

PSM Makassar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSIM Yogyakarta

PSM Makassar

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	PSM Makassar	4	−5	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PSIM Yogyakarta

Formation not confirmed

19 C. Supriadi

15 R. Cahyana

5 F. Ramos Mingo

2 J. van den Avert

25 A. Fadilah

10 Ze Valente

13 A. Purzycki

11 E. Vidal

8 S. Sheva

9 M. Caballero

99 N. Haljeta

Coach · Jean-Paul van Gastel

Substitutes

26 · H. Suardi

47 · K. Fikri

3 · Y. Yamadera

6 · M. Iqbal

14 · R. Teddy

17 · A. Irfan

20 · A. Dalmau

21 · D. Diaz

23 · G. Fatkur

27 · R. Abiyoso

29 · R. Hardiawan

52 · Ahmad Agung

PSM Makassar

Formation not confirmed

1 Ardiansyah

71 M. Hidayat

2 Aloisio Neto

94 D. Lagator

22 Victor Luiz

29 F. Aditia

8 S. Jevtoski

24 R. Pratama

11 L. Bulatovic

16 S. Aguero

7 L. Veldwijk

Coach · Darije Kalezic

Substitutes

97 · Hilmansyah

6 · R. Fandi

10 · N. Foor

14 · K. Tanaka

17 · R. Bakri

18 · G. Pagamo

27 · H. Herdiana

45 · A. Tanjung

48 · M. Arfan

77 · R. Aditya

81 · A. Rahaman

88 · A. Raehan

Our number · psim yogyakarta winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make PSIM Yogyakarta a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PSIM Yogyakarta v PSM Makassar~~1.41 – 1.20

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 2~~16 v 15

~~The market · PSIM Yogyakarta win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PSIM Yogyakarta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSIM Yogyakarta win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
PSM Makassar win	32%	34%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
PSIM Yogyakarta or draw	68%	66%	+2
PSIM Yogyakarta clean sheet	31%	–	–
PSM Makassar clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.4 5.3 2.2 1 9.9 12.7 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSIM Yogyakarta down, PSM Makassar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Liga 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSIM Yogyakarta at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). PSM Makassar away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for PSIM Yogyakarta, 1.20 for PSM Makassar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PSI 1–2 PSM · PSM 0–0 PSI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PSIM YOGYAKARTA

DLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

PSM MAKASSAR

LDDL1–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	4	+7	12
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
3	Bali United	4	+8	9
4	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
5	Persita	4	+2	8
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
8	Persib Bandung	4	+2	7
9	Arema FC	4	+4	6
10	Bhayangkara FC	4	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
12	PSS Sleman	4	−1	3
13	Java United	4	−1	2
14	Garudayaksa	4	−3	2
15	PSM Makassar	4	−5	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	4	−6	1
17	Persijap	4	−9	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	-2