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PSIM Yogyakarta v Persija

PSIM Yogyakarta

0–4Full time

Persija

Liga 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Mandala Krida Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

PSIM Yogyakarta 0–4 Persija PERSIJA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persija win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.306

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persija win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Persija was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 27–26–47
1′KICK-OFF PSIM Yogyakarta v Persija
45′HALF-TIME PSIM Yogyakarta 0–0 Persija
45′SECOND HALF PSIM Yogyakarta 0–0 Persija
54′⚽ GOAL · 56' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–0 Persija
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 Persija
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Persija
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Persija
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 Persija
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 Persija · A. Jeremejeff
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 Persija · A. Jeremejeff
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–1 Persija · A. Jeremejeff
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Persija · On: R. Ridho · Off: Fabio Silva
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: R. Cahyana · Off: M. Caballero Corrected
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–2 Persija · A. Jeremejeff
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: Ahmad Agung · Off: S. Sheva
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–2 Persija
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Persija
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–3 Persija · S. Loncar
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–3 Persija
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: M. Loria · Off: O. Rudzan
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Persija · On: K. Yoshino · Off: K. Memija
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–4 Persija · Kwon Chang-Hoon
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' PSIM Yogyakarta 0–4 Persija
FTFULL TIME PSIM Yogyakarta 0–4 Persija
FTPSIM Yogyakarta 0–4 Persija · Persija win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta win26%

Draw27%

Persija win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:30

Venue · Mandala Krida Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

PSIM Yogyakarta

Formation not confirmed

19 C. Supriadi

29 R. Hardiawan

5 F. Ramos Mingo

2 J. van den Avert

24 O. Rudzan

10 Ze Valente

8 S. Sheva

11 E. Vidal

9 M. Caballero

27 R. Abiyoso

99 N. Haljeta

Coach · Jean-Paul van Gastel

Substitutes

26 · H. Suardi

25 · A. Fadilah

3 · Y. Yamadera

52 · Ahmad Agung

21 · D. Diaz

23 · G. Fatkur

6 · M. Iqbal

14 · R. Teddy

15 · R. Cahyana

17 · A. Irfan

7 · M. Loria

Persija

Formation not confirmed

23 N. Argawinata

50 K. Memija

30 D. Kolinger

6 R. Pankov

77 D. Pamungkas

97 Fabio Silva

33 S. Loncar

11 A. Abdulmanan

58 R. Hannan

8 Witan

9 A. Jeremejeff

Coach · Tae-Yong Shin

Substitutes

22 · H. Rizkianur

1 · A. Savik

21 · J. Amat

18 · P. Arhan

2 · R. Fahmi

5 · R. Ridho

47 · F. Dennis

13 · Kwon Chang-Hoon

44 · K. Yoshino

7 · V. Dethan

27 · N. Fariel

17 · I. Mamut

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PSIM Yogyakarta

Formation not confirmed

19 C. Supriadi

29 R. Hardiawan

5 F. Ramos Mingo

2 J. van den Avert

24 O. Rudzan

10 Ze Valente

8 S. Sheva

11 E. Vidal

9 M. Caballero

27 R. Abiyoso

99 N. Haljeta

Coach · Jean-Paul van Gastel

Substitutes

26 · H. Suardi

25 · A. Fadilah

3 · Y. Yamadera

52 · Ahmad Agung

21 · D. Diaz

23 · G. Fatkur

6 · M. Iqbal

14 · R. Teddy

15 · R. Cahyana

17 · A. Irfan

7 · M. Loria

Persija

Formation not confirmed

23 N. Argawinata

50 K. Memija

30 D. Kolinger

6 R. Pankov

77 D. Pamungkas

97 Fabio Silva

33 S. Loncar

11 A. Abdulmanan

58 R. Hannan

8 Witan

9 A. Jeremejeff

Coach · Tae-Yong Shin

Substitutes

22 · H. Rizkianur

1 · A. Savik

21 · J. Amat

18 · P. Arhan

2 · R. Fahmi

5 · R. Ridho

47 · F. Dennis

13 · Kwon Chang-Hoon

44 · K. Yoshino

7 · V. Dethan

27 · N. Fariel

17 · I. Mamut

Our number · persija winPublished 10 Oct 09:34

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Persija a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · persija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSIM Yogyakarta win	26%	20%	+7
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Persija win	46%	55%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−7
PSIM Yogyakarta or draw	54%	45%	+8
PSIM Yogyakarta clean sheet	23%	–	–
Persija clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.8 11.4 8.7 4.3 1 8.0 12.7 8.9 4.4 2 4.4 6.4 4.6 2.3 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSIM Yogyakarta down, Persija across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,568 Liga 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSIM Yogyakarta at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Persija away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for PSIM Yogyakarta, 1.48 for Persija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PSI 1–1 PER · PER 2–0 PSI

Form · last six in Liga 1

PSIM YOGYAKARTA

WWLDLL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

PERSIJA

LWWWWW1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	+4	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
3	Persija	3	+3	9
4	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
5	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
6	Bali United	3	+3	6
7	Persib Bandung	3	+2	6
8	Pusamania Borneo	4	−1	6
9	Arema FC	3	+4	5
10	Bhayangkara FC	3	+2	5
11	Persita	3	+1	5
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	−2	2
14	Java United	3	−2	1
15	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	−2	1
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0
17	Persijap	3	−4	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	0