Persita v Bali United prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PersitaDrawBali United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bali United 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bali United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persita 34%, draw 25%, Bali United 41%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Persita v Bali UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Persita win34%

Draw25%

Bali United win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueUtama Sport Center Kelapa Dua

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persita

Bali United

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bali united winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Bali United a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persita v Bali United~~1.37 – 1.55

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~5 v 4

~~The market · Bali United win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bali United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persita win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Bali United win	41%	43%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Persita or draw	59%	57%	+2
Persita clean sheet	22%	–	–
Bali United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 8.2 6.4 3.4 1 7.3 11.6 8.6 4.5 2 5.1 7.7 5.8 3.0 3 2.4 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persita down, Bali United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persita at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bali United away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Persita, 1.55 for Bali United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PER 0–1 BAL · BAL 0–0 PER · BAL 1–1 PER · PER 0–1 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PERSITA

DWDWW1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

BALI UNITED

WWLWLW2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1