Persik Kediri v PSS Sleman prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 12:00

Persik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman PERSIK KEDIRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persik Kediri win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persik Kediri win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Persik Kediri was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Persik Kediri v PSS Sleman
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' PSS Sleman
7′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–13
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Persik Kediri 1–0 PSS Sleman
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
8′E. Gomez scores for Persik Kediri on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
19′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Persik Kediri 1–1 PSS Sleman
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
32′PSS Sleman score on 31′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–32–29
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 72–20–8
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Persik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
43′Persik Kediri ahead on 42′ through E. Gomez. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–20–8
45′HALF-TIME Persik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman
45′SECOND HALF Persik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
53′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
65′Gustavo Tocantins scores for PSS Sleman on 64′. 2–1 · 79–18–4
67′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PSS Sleman · On: Matheus Fornazari · Off: Gustavo Tocantins
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PSS Sleman · On: S. Ashkovski · Off: R. Simanjuntak
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' PSS Sleman · On: K. Kurniawan · Off: A. Alfareza
77′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
82′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Persik Kediri · On: R. Sanjaya · Off: A. Alrizky
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PSS Sleman · On: S. Alfarid · Off: K. Gomes
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PSS Sleman · On: M. Drajad · Off: S. Djoge
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Persik Kediri win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We published Persik Kediri at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Persik Kediri · On: M. D. Asraf Huwaidi Syam · Off: Bayu Otto
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Persik Kediri · On: A. Eko · Off: Z. Fariz
FTFULL TIME Persik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman
FTPersik Kediri 2–1 PSS Sleman · Persik Kediri win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persik Kediri are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persik Kediri 44%, draw 25%, PSS Sleman 31%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Persik Kediri v PSS SlemanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Persik Kediri win44%

Draw25%

PSS Sleman win31%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBrawijaya Stadium

Line-ups

Persik Kediri

PSS Sleman

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persik Kediri

PSS Sleman

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Persik Kediri

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Al Malik

3 Kiko

55 M. Djalo

84 J. Park

14 A. Alrizky

6 Bayu Otto

4 I. Garcia

7 E. Gomez

8 Z. Fariz

20 E. Barbosa

21 Jose Enrique

Coach · Marcos Reina

Substitutes

52 · A. Ramadhani

15 · D. Pamungkas

68 · D. Salman

77 · F. Alesandro

11 · A. Eko

5 · J. Toral

17 · A. Zidane

22 · M. D. Asraf Huwaidi Syam

9 · S. Castel

97 · M. Khanafi

23 · M. Ama Ola

19 · R. Sanjaya

PSS Sleman

Formation not confirmed

1 Pedro Caracoci

17 S. Djoge

4 Cleberson

55 C. Nduwarugira

6 K. Gomes

28 A. Alfareza

76 D. Dion

88 M. Lorenzen

25 R. Simanjuntak

11 Gustavo Tocantins

7 H. Tanaka

Coach · Pieter Huistra

Substitutes

43 · E. Rizky

16 · S. Alfarid

3 · Lucao

73 · J. Mulyana

19 · F. Aryanto

30 · I. Abdillah

27 · M. Madjar

23 · K. Kurniawan

15 · S. Ashkovski

97 · M. Drajad

72 · C. Mutzi

18 · Matheus Fornazari

Our number · persik kediri winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make Persik Kediri a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persik Kediri v PSS Sleman~~1.61 – 1.33

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~9 v 15

~~The market · Persik Kediri win~~52% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persik Kediri win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persik Kediri win	44%	52%	−8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
PSS Sleman win	31%	22%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	32%	+2
Persik Kediri or draw	69%	78%	−9
Persik Kediri clean sheet	27%	–	–
PSS Sleman clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.0 6.8 4.7 2.1 1 8.3 11.5 7.3 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.7 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persik Kediri down, PSS Sleman across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Liga 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persik Kediri at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). PSS Sleman away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Persik Kediri, 1.33 for PSS Sleman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PER 0–0 PSS · PSS 0–2 PER · PER 4–4 PSS · PSS 2–2 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PERSIK KEDIRI

LWDWL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

PSS SLEMAN

LLLWD1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Bali United	6	+12	12
4	Persita	5	+3	11
5	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
6	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
7	Persib Bandung	5	+3	10
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
10	Java United	6	0	6
11	Arema FC	6	−2	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
13	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1
18	Persijap	6	−12	0