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Persik Kediri v Persepam Madura Utd

Persik Kediri

2–0Full time

Persepam Madura Utd

Liga 1 · FRI 9 OCT · Brawijaya Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 12:02

Persik Kediri 2–0 Persepam Madura Utd PERSIK KEDIRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persik Kediri win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.512

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Persik Kediri win44%

Draw26%

Persepam Madura Utd win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 09:30

Venue · Brawijaya Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Persik Kediri

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Al Malik

3 Kiko

55 M. Djalo

84 J. Park

14 A. Alrizky

8 Z. Fariz

4 I. Garcia

6 Bayu Otto

7 E. Gomez

21 Jose Enrique

20 E. Barbosa

Coach · Marcos Reina

Substitutes

52 · A. Ramadhani

15 · D. Pamungkas

68 · D. Salman

77 · F. Alesandro

11 · A. Eko

17 · A. Zidane

22 · M. D. Asraf Huwaidi Syam

9 · S. Castel

97 · M. Khanafi

19 · R. Sanjaya

Persepam Madura Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Saputro

29 D. Sapari

3 P. Monteiro

95 Mendonca

33 A. Idrus

24 T. Muslihuddin

23 Jaja

36 Ilhamsyah

21 Freitas Gali

9 D. Mitkov

8 J. Santacruz

Coach · Gomes Ze

Substitutes

26 · A. Harlan

15 · G. Numberi

45 · T. Hidayat

68 · A. Rusadi

16 · B. Scheunemann

28 · V. Yagalo

78 · R. Ray

17 · P. Sitanggang

42 · F. Ramzy

99 · A. Kusuma

69 · M. Maulidino

77 · Balotelli

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Persik Kediri

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Al Malik

3 Kiko

55 M. Djalo

84 J. Park

14 A. Alrizky

8 Z. Fariz

4 I. Garcia

6 Bayu Otto

7 E. Gomez

21 Jose Enrique

20 E. Barbosa

Coach · Marcos Reina

Substitutes

52 · A. Ramadhani

15 · D. Pamungkas

68 · D. Salman

77 · F. Alesandro

11 · A. Eko

17 · A. Zidane

22 · M. D. Asraf Huwaidi Syam

9 · S. Castel

97 · M. Khanafi

19 · R. Sanjaya

Persepam Madura Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Saputro

29 D. Sapari

3 P. Monteiro

95 Mendonca

33 A. Idrus

24 T. Muslihuddin

23 Jaja

36 Ilhamsyah

21 Freitas Gali

9 D. Mitkov

8 J. Santacruz

Coach · Gomes Ze

Substitutes

26 · A. Harlan

15 · G. Numberi

45 · T. Hidayat

68 · A. Rusadi

16 · B. Scheunemann

28 · V. Yagalo

78 · R. Ray

17 · P. Sitanggang

42 · F. Ramzy

99 · A. Kusuma

69 · M. Maulidino

77 · Balotelli

Our number · persik kediri winPublished 9 Oct 09:31

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Persik Kediri a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · persik kediri win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persik Kediri win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Persepam Madura Utd win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−2
Persik Kediri or draw	69%	69%	0
Persik Kediri clean sheet	28%	–	–
Persepam Madura Utd clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 7.1 4.8 2.1 1 8.8 12.0 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persik Kediri down, Persepam Madura Utd across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,566 Liga 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persik Kediri at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Persepam Madura Utd away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Persik Kediri, 1.27 for Persepam Madura Utd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PER 2–1 PER · PER 1–2 PER · PER 2–1 PER · PER 1–0 PER

Form · last six in Liga 1

PERSIK KEDIRI

WLLLWD3–0 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

PERSEPAM MADURA UTD

LLWWWW1–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	+4	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	3	+5	9
3	Persija	3	+3	9
4	Bali United	3	+3	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	+2	6
6	Pusamania Borneo	4	−1	6
7	Arema FC	3	+4	5
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	+2	5
9	Persita	3	+1	5
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	+1	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	+1	4
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	−2	2
14	Java United	3	−2	1
15	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	−2	1
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0
17	Persijap	3	−4	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	3	−9	0