Persija v Persik Kediri prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PersijaDrawPersik Kediri

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Persija 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persija are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persija 67%, draw 19%, Persik Kediri 14%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Persija v Persik KediriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Persija win67%

Draw19%

Persik Kediri win14%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBung Karno Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persija

Persik Kediri

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persija winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

67% The market73%

Us67%

~~Market~~73%

We make Persija a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persija v Persik Kediri~~2.21 – 0.88

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~1 v 7

~~The market · Persija win~~73% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persija win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persija win	67%	73%	−6
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Persik Kediri win	14%	10%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	67%	−8
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	85%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Persija or draw	86%	90%	−4
Persija clean sheet	42%	–	–
Persik Kediri clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 3.8 1 9.9 9.1 3.9 2 11.0 9.5 4.2 3 8.1 7.0 3.1 4 4.5 3.9 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Persija down, Persik Kediri across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Liga 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persija at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Persik Kediri away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Persija, 0.88 for Persik Kediri. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~Persik Kediri 1–3 Persija · Persija 3–1 Persik Kediri

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PERSIJA

WWWWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–3 · 5–1

PERSIK KEDIRI

LWDWLW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1