Persija v Arema FC prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31

Persija 5–1 Arema FC PERSIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persija win~~61%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.225

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.134

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persija win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persija 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–18
1′KICK-OFF Persija v Arema FC
11′Persija find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Persija 1–0 Arema FC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Persija win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
12′We said Persija at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
13′Persija ahead on 10′ through A. Jeremejeff. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–5
48′Persija find the net on 45′. 1–0 · 82–14–4
62′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Arema FC · On: R. Darwis · Off: A. Maulana
63′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persija · On: Kwon Chang-Hoon · Off: Witan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arema FC · On: Gabriel Silva · Off: M. Zijlstra
65′We said Persija at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′We said Persija at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Persija · On: J. Amat · Off: Fabio Silva
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Persija win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Persija · On: V. Dethan · Off: A. Abdulmanan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Persija · On: I. Mamut · Off: A. Jeremejeff
86′We said Persija at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′A goal for Persija on 77′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′S. Loncar scores for Persija on 76′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′81′: Victor Jonson Benjamin Dethan on the scoresheet for Persija. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′A goal for Arema FC on 88′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arema FC · On: J. Guevara · Off: Betinho
94′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arema FC · On: Samuel Otusanya · Off: Careca
94′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Arema FC
94′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Persija · On: F. Dennis · Off: R. Pankov
105′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Arema FC · On: L. Guntara · Off: A. Farisi
110′Persija find the net on 90′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
139′⚽ GOAL · 90+49' Persija 2–0 Arema FC
140′⚽ GOAL · 90+50' Persija 3–0 Arema FC
141′⚽ GOAL · 90+51' Persija 4–0 Arema FC
142′⚽ GOAL · 90+52' Persija 4–1 Arema FC
142′⚽ GOAL · 90+52' Persija 5–1 Arema FC
FTFULL TIME Persija 5–1 Arema FC
FTPersija 5–1 Arema FC · Persija win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persija are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persija 61%, draw 21%, Arema FC 18%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Persija v Arema FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Persija win61%

Draw21%

Arema FC win18%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBung Karno Stadium

Line-ups

Persija

Arema FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persija

Arema FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Persija	5	+6	12
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Persija

Formation not confirmed

23 N. Argawinata

50 K. Memija

6 R. Pankov

30 D. Kolinger

77 D. Pamungkas

33 S. Loncar

97 Fabio Silva

8 Witan

58 R. Hannan

11 A. Abdulmanan

9 A. Jeremejeff

Coach · Tae-Yong Shin

Substitutes

22 · H. Rizkianur

1 · A. Savik

59 · D. Syayid

21 · J. Amat

18 · P. Arhan

2 · R. Fahmi

47 · F. Dennis

56 · F. Fathurrahman

13 · Kwon Chang-Hoon

7 · V. Dethan

17 · I. Mamut

98 · R. Eksel

Arema FC

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Satryo

19 A. Maulana

3 Diego Landis

5 Walisson Maia

87 A. Farisi

18 Betinho

25 Matheus Blade

95 Careca

8 A. Fikri

98 MV

9 M. Zijlstra

Coach · Marquinhos

Substitutes

26 · S. Trisna

31 · G. Pandenuwu

24 · R. Darwis

4 · L. Guntara

66 · H. Yama

6 · J. Guevara

13 · Tito Hamzah

21 · F. Arjidan

34 · Samuel Otusanya

41 · D. Santoso

7 · Gabriel Silva

11 · S. Tuharea

Our number · persija winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

61% The market70%

Us61%

~~Market~~70%

We make Persija a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persija v Arema FC~~2.14 – 1.07

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~2 v 10

~~The market · Persija win~~70% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persija win	61%	70%	−9
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Arema FC win	18%	11%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	58%	52%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Persija or draw	82%	89%	−7
Persija clean sheet	35%	–	–
Arema FC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.6 4.1 2.4 1 8.5 9.5 4.9 2 9.2 9.6 5.1 3 6.5 6.8 3.6 4 3.5 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persija down, Arema FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,586 Liga 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persija at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Arema FC away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Persija, 1.07 for Arema FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PER 3–1 ARE · PER 0–2 ARE · ARE 1–2 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PERSIJA

WWWWL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–3

AREMA FC

WDDDL4–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	6	+6	14
2	Persija	5	+6	12
3	Persita	5	+3	11
4	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
5	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
6	Persib Bandung	5	+3	10
7	Bali United	5	+7	9
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6
11	Java United	6	0	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1
18	Persijap	6	−12	0