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Persib Bandung v Persik Kediri

Persib Bandung

1–0Full time

Persik Kediri

Liga 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Gelora Bandung Lautan Api Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Persib Bandung 1–0 Persik Kediri PERSIB BANDUNG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persib Bandung win~~67%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.168

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persib Bandung win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Persib Bandung was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
1′KICK-OFF Persib Bandung v Persik Kediri
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
37′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–14
39′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–14
40′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–29–46
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 25–29–46
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Persib Bandung 0–1 Persik Kediri
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 25% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Persik Kediri win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Persib Bandung win 25%)
41′A goal for Persik Kediri on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–29–46
41′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–29–46
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Persik Kediri
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 53% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Persib Bandung win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Persik Kediri win 14%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Persik Kediri
45′SECOND HALF Persib Bandung 0–0 Persik Kediri
48′HALF-TIME Persib Bandung 0–0 Persik Kediri
49′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 46–41–14
57′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–13
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persib Bandung · On: Berguinho · Off: L. Menalo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persib Bandung · On: B. Sekulic · Off: M. Peralta
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persib Bandung · On: T. Haye · Off: L. Guaycochea
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Persib Bandung win 41%)
63′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–12
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
69′We said Persib Bandung at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–55–11
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Persik Kediri · On: S. Castel · Off: Jose Enrique
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Persik Kediri · On: R. Sanjaya · Off: A. Alrizky
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Persik Kediri
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 27% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Persik Kediri · On: F. Alesandro · Off: Bayu Otto
78′We published Persib Bandung at 67%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Persib Bandung 1–0 Persik Kediri
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 92% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Persib Bandung win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
79′A goal for Persib Bandung on 79′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Persib Bandung · On: Julio Cesar · Off: D. Loncar
83′We published Persib Bandung at 67%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Persib Bandung win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
93′We published Persib Bandung at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Persib Bandung 2–0 Persik Kediri
94′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Persib Bandung · On: D. Kusnandar · Off: A. Alis
95′Persib Bandung score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Persib Bandung
101′1–0 after extra time. Our 67% on Persib Bandung is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 1–0 · 100–0–0
101′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+11' Persib Bandung
FTFULL TIME Persib Bandung 1–0 Persik Kediri
FTPersib Bandung 1–0 Persik Kediri · Persib Bandung win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persib Bandung are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persib Bandung 67%, draw 20%, Persik Kediri 13%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Persib Bandung v Persik KediriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Persib Bandung win67%

Draw20%

Persik Kediri win13%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueGelora Bandung Lautan Api Stadium

Line-ups

Persib Bandung

Persik Kediri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persib Bandung

Persik Kediri

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
9	Persib Bandung	4	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Persib Bandung

Formation not confirmed

81 F. Maulana

2 E. Reijnders

22 D. Loncar

48 P. Matricardi

6 S. Walsh

23 M. Klok

8 L. Guaycochea

94 Uilliam

18 A. Alis

9 L. Menalo

10 M. Peralta

Coach · Igor Tolic

Substitutes

14 · T. Paku Alam

60 · R. Syafaka

5 · K. Rudianto

4 · Julio Cesar

33 · T. Haye

11 · D. Kusnandar

7 · B. Putra

30 · R. Rasyiq

19 · N. Alfaro

40 · I. Tanamal

99 · B. Sekulic

97 · Berguinho

Persik Kediri

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Al Malik

3 Kiko

55 M. Djalo

84 J. Park

14 A. Alrizky

4 I. Garcia

8 Z. Fariz

20 E. Barbosa

6 Bayu Otto

7 E. Gomez

21 Jose Enrique

Coach · Marcos Reina

Substitutes

27 · R. Abhirama

52 · A. Ramadhani

15 · D. Pamungkas

68 · D. Salman

77 · F. Alesandro

11 · A. Eko

22 · M. D. Asraf Huwaidi Syam

9 · S. Castel

97 · M. Khanafi

23 · M. Ama Ola

19 · R. Sanjaya

Our number · persib bandung winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market59%

Us67%

~~Market~~59%

We make Persib Bandung a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persib Bandung v Persik Kediri~~2.14 – 0.82

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~9 v 7

~~The market · Persib Bandung win~~59% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persib Bandung win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persib Bandung win	67%	59%	+8
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Persik Kediri win	13%	19%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Persib Bandung or draw	87%	81%	+6
Persib Bandung clean sheet	44%	–	–
Persik Kediri clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 4.1 1 10.9 9.4 3.8 2 11.6 9.4 3.9 3 8.3 6.7 2.8 4 4.5 3.6 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Persib Bandung down, Persik Kediri across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Liga 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persib Bandung at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Persik Kediri away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Persib Bandung, 0.82 for Persik Kediri. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Persib Bandung 3–0 Persik Kediri · Persik Kediri 1–1 Persib Bandung · Persib Bandung 4–1 Persik Kediri · Persik Kediri 0–2 Persib Bandung

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PERSIB BANDUNG

WLWD3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

PERSIK KEDIRI

LWDW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	5	+6	12
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
3	Persita	5	+3	11
4	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
5	Bali United	5	+7	9
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
8	Bhayangkara FC	5	+2	7
9	Persib Bandung	4	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
12	Java United	5	0	5
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
15	PSS Sleman	4	−1	3
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	5	−7	1
17	Isenmulang Kalteng	5	−9	1
18	Persijap	5	−10	0