Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga 1 › Persepam Madura Utd v Persib Bandung

Back
Indonesia flag

Persepam Madura Utd v Persib Bandung

Persepam Madura Utd
1–0Full time
Persib Bandung

Liga 1 · THU 22 OCT · Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 15:30
Persepam Madura Utd 1–0 Persib Bandung PERSIB BANDUNG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Persib Bandung win53%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.939
The market’s Brier score0.992

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Persib Bandung win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Persepam Madura Utd v Persib Bandung
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Persib Bandung was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  5. 45′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 21–38–41
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Persepam Madura Utd 0–0 Persib Bandung
  7. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persib Bandung · On: M. Peralta · Off: L. Menalo
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persib Bandung · On: S. Walsh · Off: K. Rudianto
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persib Bandung · On: L. Guaycochea · Off: A. Alis
  10. 48′HALF-TIME Persepam Madura Utd 0–0 Persib Bandung
  11. 49′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 20–41–39
  12. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Persib Bandung win 40%)
  13. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 19–45–36
  14. 59′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–48–34
  15. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  16. 66′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 16–55–29
  17. 72′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 14–62–24
  18. 72′We published Persib Bandung at 53%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 1–12–86
  19. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Persepam Madura Utd 0–1 Persib Bandung
  20. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, 86% now
  21. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Persib Bandung win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 62%)
  22. 73′Persib Bandung find the net on 73′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
  23. 73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Persib Bandung
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  25. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Persib Bandung win 87%)
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Persepam Madura Utd · On: Iran Junior · Off: Lulinha
  27. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Persib Bandung
  28. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  29. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Persib Bandung · On: Uilliam · Off: T. Haye
  30. 85′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–85–9
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Persepam Madura Utd · On: A. Kusuma · Off: Freitas Gali
  32. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Persepam Madura Utd · On: Balotelli · Off: J. Santacruz
  33. 88′We said Persib Bandung at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 93–7–0
  34. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Persepam Madura Utd 1–0 Persib Bandung
  35. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Persib Bandung win: 53% at kick-off, under 1% now
  36. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Persepam Madura Utd win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 89%)
  37. 89′Persepam Madura Utd find the net on 89′. 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  38. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Persib Bandung · On: B. Putra · Off: M. Klok
  39. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Persepam Madura Utd · On: A. Rusadi · Off: D. Mitkov
  40. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Persib Bandung
  41. FTFULL TIME Persepam Madura Utd 1–0 Persib Bandung
  42. FTPersepam Madura Utd 1–0 Persib Bandung · Persib Bandung win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persib Bandung are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persepam Madura Utd 23%, draw 25%, Persib Bandung 53%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Persepam Madura Utd v Persib BandungBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Persepam Madura Utd win23%
Draw25%
Persib Bandung win53%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueGelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persepam Madura Utd

Persib Bandung

6Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Persepam Madura Utd5+310
7Persib Bandung5+310

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persib bandung winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
53% The market54%
Us53%
Market54%

We make Persib Bandung a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Persepam Madura Utd v Persib Bandung1.02 – 1.71
Form · Liga 1 this season · since 6 SeptW3 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L1
Table places · points 10 v 106 v 7
The market · Persib Bandung win54% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 12:28
Our probability · Persib Bandung win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Persepam Madura Utd win23%20%+3
Draw25%25%0
Persib Bandung win53%54%−1
Over 2.5 goals51%51%0
Both teams to score52%53%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals29%30%−1
Persepam Madura Utd or draw47%46%+1
Persepam Madura Utd clean sheet19%––
Persib Bandung clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 7.2 10.9 9.4 5.4 2.4 1 6.5 11.6 9.4 5.3 2.3 2 3.5 5.7 4.8 2.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Persepam Madura Utd down, Persib Bandung across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsPersib Bandung 5–0 Persepam Madura Utd · Persepam Madura Utd 1–4 Persib Bandung · Persib Bandung 0–0 Persepam Madura Utd · Persepam Madura Utd 2–2 Persib Bandung

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 6 Sept

PERSEPAM MADURA UTD

WWWLD2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–3

PERSIB BANDUNG

WLWDW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persija6+1015
2Dewa United6+614
3Bali United6+1212
4Persita5+311
5Bhayangkara FC6+310
6Persepam Madura Utd5+310
7Persib Bandung5+310
8Persebaya Surabaya5+29
9Persik Kediri5+27
10Java United606
11Arema FC6−26
12Pusamania Borneo5−26
13PSM Makassar5−45
14Garudayaksa6−65
15PSS Sleman5−14
16Isenmulang Kalteng6−92
17PSIM Yogyakarta6−81
18Persijap6−120

The competition's standings before kick-off.