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Persebaya Surabaya v PSS Sleman

Persebaya Surabaya

2–2Full time

PSS Sleman

Liga 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Persebaya Surabaya 2–2 PSS Sleman PERSEBAYA SURABAYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persebaya Surabaya win~~57%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.960

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.956

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persebaya Surabaya win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persebaya Surabaya 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–19
1′KICK-OFF Persebaya Surabaya v PSS Sleman
8′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–24–44
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Persebaya Surabaya 0–1 PSS Sleman
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 31% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' PSS Sleman win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Persebaya Surabaya win 31%)
9′PSS Sleman find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 31–25–44
14′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–45
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' PSS Sleman
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Persebaya Surabaya
28′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–49
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 23–27–50
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 PSS Sleman
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Persebaya Surabaya win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was PSS Sleman win 19%)
37′A goal for Persebaya Surabaya on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 48–33–19
44′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 1–1 · 45–36–19
45′SECOND HALF Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 PSS Sleman
46′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–37–19
48′HALF-TIME Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 PSS Sleman
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PSS Sleman · On: S. Djoge · Off: C. Mutzi
56′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Persebaya Surabaya win 39%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
61′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–26–64
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Persebaya Surabaya 1–2 PSS Sleman
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 10% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' PSS Sleman win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 26%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persebaya Surabaya · On: R. Pratama · Off: R. Malik
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persebaya Surabaya · On: Y. Mabella · Off: Ramalho
62′PSS Sleman score on 61′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–26–65
63′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–66
63′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–26–66
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Persebaya Surabaya win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
73′We said Persebaya Surabaya at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PSS Sleman · On: Matheus Fornazari · Off: M. Lorenzen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PSS Sleman · On: A. Alfareza · Off: K. Kurniawan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Persebaya Surabaya · On: S. Ramdani · Off: T. Firmansyah
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' PSS Sleman · On: J. Haqi · Off: R. Simanjuntak
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' PSS Sleman · On: Lucao · Off: Gustavo Tocantins
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Persebaya Surabaya · On: S. Lasinari · Off: A. Catur
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Persebaya Surabaya · On: R. Mitrevski · Off: Gledson
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–93–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Persebaya Surabaya 2–2 PSS Sleman
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was PSS Sleman win 3%)
92′Persebaya Surabaya find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–94–2
96′2–2 at the end. Our 57% on Persebaya Surabaya misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Persebaya Surabaya 2–2 PSS Sleman
FTPersebaya Surabaya 2–2 PSS Sleman · Persebaya Surabaya win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 57%, draw 23%, PSS Sleman 19%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Persebaya Surabaya v PSS SlemanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya win57%

Draw23%

PSS Sleman win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueGelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Line-ups

Persebaya Surabaya

PSS Sleman

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persebaya Surabaya

PSS Sleman

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
15	PSS Sleman	4	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Persebaya Surabaya

Formation not confirmed

21 E. Ari

2 A. Catur

34 Walber

4 Y. Fernandes

17 Jefferson

20 Ramalho

40 Gledson

68 T. Firmansyah

77 R. Malik

39 Alex

11 M. Pereira

Coach · Bernardo Tavares

Substitutes

30 · R. Arya

33 · K. Ari

53 · R. Irianto

5 · R. Mitrevski

22 · S. Lasinari

72 · A. Maulana

66 · Dicky Kurniawan

31 · Y. Meilana

55 · S. Putra

42 · S. Ramdani

14 · Y. Mabella

16 · R. Pratama

PSS Sleman

Formation not confirmed

1 Pedro Caracoci

72 C. Mutzi

4 Cleberson

55 C. Nduwarugira

6 K. Gomes

23 K. Kurniawan

76 D. Dion

25 R. Simanjuntak

88 M. Lorenzen

7 H. Tanaka

11 Gustavo Tocantins

Coach · Pieter Huistra

Substitutes

43 · E. Rizky

16 · S. Alfarid

17 · S. Djoge

3 · Lucao

73 · J. Mulyana

19 · F. Aryanto

30 · I. Abdillah

27 · M. Madjar

28 · A. Alfareza

97 · M. Drajad

18 · Matheus Fornazari

22 · J. Haqi

Our number · persebaya surabaya winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make Persebaya Surabaya a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persebaya Surabaya v PSS Sleman~~1.88 – 0.98

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~6 v 15

~~The market · Persebaya Surabaya win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persebaya Surabaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persebaya Surabaya win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	23%	23%	0
PSS Sleman win	19%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Persebaya Surabaya or draw	81%	81%	0
Persebaya Surabaya clean sheet	38%	–	–
PSS Sleman clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.5 5.5 2.9 1 10.5 10.8 5.1 2 9.9 9.5 4.7 3 6.2 5.9 2.9 4 3.0 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persebaya Surabaya down, PSS Sleman across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Liga 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persebaya Surabaya at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). PSS Sleman away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Persebaya Surabaya, 0.98 for PSS Sleman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PSS 3–1 PER · PER 1–0 PSS · PER 2–1 PSS · PSS 0–0 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PERSEBAYA SURABAYA

DWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

PSS SLEMAN

LLLW1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	5	+6	12
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
3	Persita	5	+3	11
4	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
5	Bali United	5	+7	9
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
8	Bhayangkara FC	5	+2	7
9	Persib Bandung	4	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
12	Java United	5	0	5
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
15	PSS Sleman	4	−1	3
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	5	−7	1
17	Isenmulang Kalteng	5	−9	1
18	Persijap	5	−10	0