Persebaya Surabaya v Persijap prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Persebaya SurabayaDrawPersijap

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Persebaya Surabaya 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 61%, draw 24%, Persijap 15%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Persebaya Surabaya v PersijapBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya win61%

Draw24%

Persijap win15%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persebaya Surabaya

Persijap

8Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
18	Persijap	7	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persebaya surabaya winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Persebaya Surabaya a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persebaya Surabaya v Persijap~~1.73 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~9 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persebaya Surabaya win	61%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Persijap win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Persebaya Surabaya or draw	85%	–	–
Persebaya Surabaya clean sheet	48%	–	–
Persijap clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 9.1 6.1 2.3 1 14.5 10.9 3.9 2 12.6 9.1 3.3 3 7.3 5.2 4 3.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persebaya Surabaya down, Persijap across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persebaya Surabaya at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Persijap away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Persebaya Surabaya, 0.73 for Persijap. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~Persijap 3–1 Persebaya Surabaya · Persebaya Surabaya 4–0 Persijap

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PERSEBAYA SURABAYA

DWDWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

PERSIJAP

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1