Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura Utd prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Persebaya SurabayaDrawPersepam Madura Utd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Persebaya Surabaya 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 57%, draw 24%, Persepam Madura Utd 19%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Persebaya Surabaya win57%

Draw24%

Persepam Madura Utd win19%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persebaya Surabaya

Persepam Madura Utd

4Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persebaya surabaya winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

57% The market63%

Us57%

~~Market~~63%

We make Persebaya Surabaya a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura Utd~~1.80 – 0.94

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~9 v 3

~~The market · Persebaya Surabaya win~~63% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persebaya Surabaya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persebaya Surabaya win	57%	63%	−6
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Persepam Madura Utd win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Persebaya Surabaya or draw	81%	85%	−4
Persebaya Surabaya clean sheet	40%	–	–
Persepam Madura Utd clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 7.0 5.9 2.9 1 11.5 11.1 5.1 2 10.4 9.5 4.5 3 6.2 5.7 2.7 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persebaya Surabaya down, Persepam Madura Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persebaya Surabaya at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Persepam Madura Utd away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Persebaya Surabaya, 0.94 for Persepam Madura Utd. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Persebaya Surabaya 1–2 Persepam Madura Utd · Persepam Madura Utd 0–1 Persebaya Surabaya · Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 Persepam Madura Utd · Persepam Madura Utd 1–2 Persebaya Surabaya

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PERSEBAYA SURABAYA

DWDWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

PERSEPAM MADURA UTD

WWWLDW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1