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Java United v Bali United

Java United

3–2Full time

Bali United

Liga 1 · FRI 16 OCT · Gelora Kie Raha Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Java United 3–2 Bali United JAVA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Java United win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Java United win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Java United was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–34
1′KICK-OFF Java United v Bali United
14′A goal for Java United on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–15
14′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–15
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Java United 1–0 Bali United
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
27′Java United score on 26′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Java United 2–0 Bali United
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Java United
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 68–19–13
34′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Bali United · On: M. Dugandzic · Off: J. van der Sande
41′Java United score on 40′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Java United 2–0 Bali United
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
42′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
43′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Java United
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Java United 1–0 Bali United
46′SECOND HALF Java United 1–0 Bali United
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Java United
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Java United
59′Bali United score on 59′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–42–26
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Java United 1–1 Bali United
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 32% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Java United win 32%)
60′We said Java United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–43–26
61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bali United · On: J. Herdman · Off: I. Jaya
64′We said Java United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Java United · On: T. Rustam · Off: F. Sudin
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Java United
72′We said Java United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Java United · On: Ciro · Off: L. Brambilla
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Java United · On: R. Syuhada · Off: Y. Roni
77′We said Java United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–16
78′Java United find the net on 78′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
78′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Java United 2–1 Bali United
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Java United win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Bali United
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bali United · On: J. Raven · Off: R. Fajrin
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bali United · On: T. Made · Off: Kadek Agung
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Java United win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
90′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Bali United
95′A red card for Bali United on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 98–2–0
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Bali United
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Java United · On: M. Firly · Off: Gustavo
98′A goal for Java United on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Java United 3–1 Bali United
99′We published Java United at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
99′90′: J. Raven on the scoresheet for Bali United, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' T. Goppel · Bali United
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Java United 3–2 Bali United · J. Raven
FTFULL TIME Java United 3–2 Bali United
FTJava United 3–2 Bali United · Java United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Java United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Java United 44%, draw 23%, Bali United 34%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Java United v Bali UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Java United win44%

Draw23%

Bali United win34%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueGelora Kie Raha Stadium

Line-ups

Java United

Bali United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Java United

Bali United

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bali United	4	+8	9
13	Java United	4	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Java United

Formation not confirmed

1 Jorge

14 R. Ardiansyah

4 Gustavo

3 Cleylton

11 Y. Roni

28 Vander

8 K. Hirose

88 F. Sudin

10 L. Brambilla

12 Y. Sayuri

70 Gustavo

Coach · Fabio Lefundes

Substitutes

33 · M. Saputra

35 · A. Kurung

85 · M. Firly

19 · T. Rustam

68 · T. Setiawan

56 · R. Syuhada

7 · Ciro

21 · F. Butuan

77 · A. Oropa

99 · R. Salmon

93 · C. Margono

Bali United

Formation not confirmed

56 F. Rustapa

24 R. Fajrin

4 K. Arel

22 T. Geypens

88 Queven

11 R. Balk

8 T. Yachida

18 Kadek Agung

7 T. Goppel

20 J. van der Sande

41 I. Jaya

Coach · Johnny Jansen

Substitutes

21 · Wayan Arta

44 · P. Panji

16 · Rizky Dwi

83 · A. Dwi

27 · R. Barusu

42 · M. Simon

79 · A. Sanjaya

55 · T. Made

45 · M. Dugandzic

10 · J. Herdman

19 · J. Raven

Our number · java united winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Java United a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Java United v Bali United~~1.87 – 1.63

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~13 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Java United win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Java United win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bali United win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Java United or draw	66%	–	–
Java United clean sheet	20%	–	–
Bali United clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 4.7 4.1 2.2 1 5.5 9.5 7.3 4.0 2 5.4 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.3 5.2 4.2 2.3 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Java United down, Bali United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Liga 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Java United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bali United away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Java United, 1.63 for Bali United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAL 4–1 JAV · JAV 3–3 BAL · BAL 1–1 JAV · JAV 1–4 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

JAVA UNITED

DLLW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

BALI UNITED

WWLW2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	4	+7	12
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
3	Bali United	4	+8	9
4	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
5	Persita	4	+2	8
6	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
7	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
8	Persib Bandung	4	+2	7
9	Arema FC	4	+4	6
10	Bhayangkara FC	4	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
12	PSS Sleman	4	−1	3
13	Java United	4	−1	2
14	Garudayaksa	4	−3	2
15	PSM Makassar	4	−5	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	4	−6	1
17	Persijap	4	−9	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	-2