Isenmulang Kalteng v PSIM Yogyakarta prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Isenmulang Kalteng 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta ISENMULANG KALTENG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Isenmulang Kalteng win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Isenmulang Kalteng win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Isenmulang Kalteng was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Isenmulang Kalteng v PSIM Yogyakarta
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Isenmulang Kalteng win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Isenmulang Kalteng 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
46′SECOND HALF Isenmulang Kalteng 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Isenmulang Kalteng win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: A. Fadilah · Off: Y. Yamadera
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: M. Loria · Off: M. Iqbal
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Isenmulang Kalteng · On: M. Konate · Off: K. Nishioka
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Isenmulang Kalteng · On: Sergio Mendonca · Off: Vinicius Baiano
55′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–48–24
64′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Isenmulang Kalteng · On: Galuh Nata · Off: S. Abdillah
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Isenmulang Kalteng win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
72′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: A. Irfan · Off: M. Caballero
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: R. Hardiawan · Off: R. Cahyana
79′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–76–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Isenmulang Kalteng win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Isenmulang Kalteng · On: G. Al Maruf · Off: B. Pondaag
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Isenmulang Kalteng · On: R. Ariyanto · Off: F. Ramadhan
91′We said Isenmulang Kalteng at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Isenmulang Kalteng 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
FTIsenmulang Kalteng 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta · Isenmulang Kalteng win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Isenmulang Kalteng are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Isenmulang Kalteng 40%, draw 28%, PSIM Yogyakarta 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Isenmulang Kalteng v PSIM YogyakartaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Isenmulang Kalteng win40%

Draw28%

PSIM Yogyakarta win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadion Sriwedari

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Isenmulang Kalteng

PSIM Yogyakarta

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · isenmulang kalteng winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Isenmulang Kalteng a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Isenmulang Kalteng v PSIM Yogyakarta~~1.33 – 1.16

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 2 v 1~~16 v 17

~~The market · Isenmulang Kalteng win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Isenmulang Kalteng win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Isenmulang Kalteng win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	0
PSIM Yogyakarta win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−11
Isenmulang Kalteng or draw	68%	64%	+4
Isenmulang Kalteng clean sheet	32%	–	–
PSIM Yogyakarta clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 9.4 5.6 2.2 1 10.8 12.9 7.2 2.8 2 7.3 8.3 4.8 3 3.3 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Isenmulang Kalteng down, PSIM Yogyakarta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Isenmulang Kalteng at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). PSIM Yogyakarta away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Isenmulang Kalteng, 1.16 for PSIM Yogyakarta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ISE 0–0 PSI · PSI 3–0 ISE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

ISENMULANG KALTENG

LLLLWD0–4 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

PSIM YOGYAKARTA

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	6	0	6
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1
18	Persijap	6	−12	0