Dewa United v Persijap prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:30

Dewa United 2–0 Persijap DEWA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dewa United win~~62%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dewa United win at 62%.
0′KICK-OFF Dewa United v Persijap
1′Much as we predicted: Dewa United was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
9′We published Dewa United at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Dewa United 1–0 Persijap
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
10′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Dewa United
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 60% now
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Dewa United
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Persijap
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Dewa United
38′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–35–15
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Dewa United
40′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
45′SECOND HALF Dewa United 0–0 Persijap
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dewa United · On: R. Struick · Off: E. Vikri
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dewa United · On: E. Febriansyah · Off: A. Ballah
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dewa United · On: A. Messidoro · Off: Jean Mangabeira
49′HALF-TIME Dewa United 0–0 Persijap
50′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–14
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–45–14
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Dewa United win 43%)
58′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–13
60′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Persijap · On: Z. Afandi · Off: A. Umanailo
64′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–12
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
70′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–61–11
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dewa United · On: Pedro · Off: N. Sadaoui
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Persijap · On: Y. Sogodogo · Off: Juan Douglas
75′We said Dewa United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–68–9
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
78′We published Dewa United at 62%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Dewa United 1–0 Persijap
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Dewa United win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Dewa United win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 73%)
79′Dewa United find the net on 79′. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
83′We published Dewa United at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Persijap · On: R. Saepul · Off: V. Kalezic
91′We published Dewa United at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Persijap · On: A. Wadil · Off: N. Yakubu
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Persijap · On: D. Galeh · Off: China
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Dewa United 2–0 Persijap
93′A goal for Dewa United on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′Full time, 2–0. We called Dewa United at 62% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Dewa United · On: L. Widiyanto · Off: T. Marukawa
FTFULL TIME Dewa United 2–0 Persijap
FTDewa United 2–0 Persijap · Dewa United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dewa United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dewa United 62%, draw 23%, Persijap 15%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Dewa United v PersijapBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dewa United win62%

Draw23%

Persijap win15%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueIndomilk Arena

Line-ups

Dewa United

Persijap

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dewa United

Persijap

9Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
18	Persijap	5	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dewa United

Formation not confirmed

92 S. Stevens

25 A. Buffon

22 Ko Myeong-Seok

2 N. Kuipers

37 A. Ballah

5 Jean Mangabeira

6 I. Jenner

77 N. Sadaoui

10 E. Vikri

11 T. Marukawa

7 Deni Junior

Coach · Osmar Loss

Substitutes

23 · A. Setiawan

26 · F. Saviola

99 · S. Sanggasi

63 · R. Wahyudi

28 · A. Messidoro

9 · Pedro

88 · L. Widiyanto

27 · R. Struick

1 · M. Riyandi

97 · E. Febriansyah

14 · B. Fatari

Persijap

Formation not confirmed

20 S. Johansah

14 R. Hidayat

15 S. Ofori

44 S. Chica

22 B. Ismu

96 A. Umanailo

55 N. Yakubu

10 Pirulo

70 V. Kalezic

9 Juan Douglas

25 China

Coach · Mario Lemos

Substitutes

18 · F. Marcelino

71 · A. Fadlillah

12 · Z. Afandi

27 · Reycredo Beremanda

97 · A. Wadil

45 · D. Galeh

21 · R. Saepul

8 · P. Santamaria

17 · Y. Sogodogo

26 · R. Handika

Our number · dewa united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

62% The market81%

Us62%

~~Market~~81%

We make Dewa United a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dewa United v Persijap~~1.82 – 0.75

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 0~~2 v 18

~~The market · Dewa United win~~81% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dewa United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dewa United win	62%	81%	−19
Draw	23%	13%	+10
Persijap win	15%	6%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	47%	62%	−15
Both teams to score	44%	40%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	82%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	42%	−16
Dewa United or draw	85%	94%	−9
Dewa United clean sheet	48%	–	–
Persijap clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.3 5.5 2.2 1 13.7 10.7 3.9 2 12.5 9.2 3.5 3 7.6 5.6 2.1 4 3.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dewa United down, Persijap across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,583 Liga 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dewa United at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Persijap away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Dewa United, 0.75 for Persijap. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DEW 1–0 PER · PER 0–3 DEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

DEWA UNITED

WDWWD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

PERSIJAP

LLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	5	+6	12
2	Dewa United	5	+4	11
3	Persita	5	+3	11
4	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
5	Persib Bandung	5	+3	10
6	Bali United	5	+7	9
7	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
8	Bhayangkara FC	5	+2	7
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6
11	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
12	Java United	5	0	5
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	5	−7	1
17	Isenmulang Kalteng	5	−9	1
18	Persijap	5	−10	0