Bhayangkara FC v PSM Makassar prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bhayangkara FCDrawPSM Makassar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bhayangkara FC 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bhayangkara FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bhayangkara FC 52%, draw 23%, PSM Makassar 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bhayangkara FC v PSM MakassarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bhayangkara FC win52%

Draw23%

PSM Makassar win24%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSumpah Pemuda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bhayangkara FC

PSM Makassar

6Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bhayangkara fc winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off

52% The market62%

Us52%

~~Market~~62%

We make Bhayangkara FC a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bhayangkara FC v PSM Makassar~~1.82 – 1.17

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~6 v 10

~~The market · Bhayangkara FC win~~62% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bhayangkara FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bhayangkara FC win	52%	62%	−10
Draw	23%	22%	+1
PSM Makassar win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	57%	53%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Bhayangkara FC or draw	76%	84%	−8
Bhayangkara FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
PSM Makassar clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.5 5.7 3.5 1 9.0 10.8 6.2 2.4 2 8.3 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.0 5.7 3.4 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bhayangkara FC down, PSM Makassar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Liga 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bhayangkara FC at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). PSM Makassar away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Bhayangkara FC, 1.17 for PSM Makassar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PSM 2–1 BHA · BHA 1–1 PSM · PSM 1–1 BHA · BHA 0–0 PSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BHAYANGKARA FC

DDWDDW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–0

PSM MAKASSAR

LDDLWW1–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1