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Bhayangkara FC v PSIM Yogyakarta

Bhayangkara FC
1–0Full time
PSIM Yogyakarta

Liga 1 · TUE 20 OCT · Sumpah Pemuda

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:30
Bhayangkara FC 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta BHAYANGKARA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bhayangkara FC win56%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.295
The market’s Brier score0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bhayangkara FC win at 56%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bhayangkara FC 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bhayangkara FC v PSIM Yogyakarta
  4. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' PSIM Yogyakarta
  5. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' PSIM Yogyakarta
  6. 26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' PSIM Yogyakarta
  7. 27′PSIM Yogyakarta are down to ten from 26′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 50–29–22
  8. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Bhayangkara FC · On: T. Ichsan · Off: W. Subo
  9. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Bhayangkara FC win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
  10. 44′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–21
  11. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: A. Fadilah · Off: R. Abiyoso
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Bhayangkara FC 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Bhayangkara FC 0–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
  14. 55′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  15. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–43–19
  16. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bhayangkara FC win 40%)
  17. 60′A goal for Bhayangkara FC on 59′. 0–0 · 36–46–18
  18. 60′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  19. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Bhayangkara FC win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  20. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bhayangkara FC 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
  21. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Bhayangkara FC win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
  22. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Bhayangkara FC win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 46%)
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bhayangkara FC · On: Moises Gaucho · Off: A. Sojberg
  24. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: Ahmad Agung · Off: S. Sheva
  25. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: R. Hardiawan · Off: R. Cahyana
  26. 69′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  27. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' PSIM Yogyakarta
  28. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Bhayangkara FC win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSIM Yogyakarta · On: M. Caballero · Off: Y. Yamadera
  30. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Bhayangkara FC
  31. 79′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  32. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Caballero · PSIM Yogyakarta
  33. 86′We said Bhayangkara FC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  34. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Bhayangkara FC win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bhayangkara FC · On: M. Ferarri · Off: P. Gede
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bhayangkara FC · On: S. Rizki · Off: Allano
  37. FTFULL TIME Bhayangkara FC 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta
  38. FTBhayangkara FC 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta · Bhayangkara FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bhayangkara FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bhayangkara FC 56%, draw 23%, PSIM Yogyakarta 22%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bhayangkara FC v PSIM YogyakartaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Bhayangkara FC win56%
Draw23%
PSIM Yogyakarta win22%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueSumpah Pemuda

Line-ups

Bhayangkara FC

PSIM Yogyakarta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bhayangkara FC

PSIM Yogyakarta

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Bhayangkara FC5+27
16PSIM Yogyakarta5−71

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bhayangkara FC

Formation not confirmed

71 M. Fahri

2 P. Gede

7 M. Ristovski

9 A. Sojberg

4 N. Sadiki

10 Allano

6 K. Sibille

11 F. Andika

23 W. Subo

17 M. Sidibe

28 M. Vera

Coach · Oscar Bruzon

Substitutes

12 · Awan Setho

96 · R. Kurnia

58 · F. Missa

22 · Ginanjar

26 · F. Murari

27 · Y. Putra

5 · Moises Gaucho

88 · L. X. Keet

33 · M. Andhika

19 · T. Ichsan

20 · S. Rizki

41 · M. Ferarri

PSIM Yogyakarta

Formation not confirmed

19 C. Supriadi

2 J. van den Avert

8 S. Sheva

10 Ze Valente

3 Y. Yamadera

11 E. Vidal

5 F. Ramos Mingo

13 A. Purzycki

27 R. Abiyoso

15 R. Cahyana

99 N. Haljeta

Coach · Jean-Paul van Gastel

Substitutes

26 · H. Suardi

47 · K. Fikri

14 · R. Teddy

29 · R. Hardiawan

25 · A. Fadilah

23 · G. Fatkur

52 · Ahmad Agung

17 · A. Irfan

6 · M. Iqbal

20 · A. Dalmau

9 · M. Caballero

Our number · bhayangkara fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
56% The market56%
Us56%
Market56%

We make Bhayangkara FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bhayangkara FC v PSIM Yogyakarta1.92 – 1.10
Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D4 L0 · W0 D1 L4
Table places · points 7 v 18 v 16
The market · Bhayangkara FC win56% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 12:37
Our probability · Bhayangkara FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bhayangkara FC win56%56%0
Draw23%25%−2
PSIM Yogyakarta win22%20%+2
Over 2.5 goals58%56%+2
Both teams to score57%56%+1
Over 1.5 goals80%78%+2
Over 3.5 goals36%35%+1
Bhayangkara FC or draw78%80%−2
Bhayangkara FC clean sheet34%––
PSIM Yogyakarta clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 5.5 5.2 3.1 1 9.1 10.5 5.6 2.1 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 5.7 6.1 3.4 4 2.8 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bhayangkara FC down, PSIM Yogyakarta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsBHA 2–1 PSI · PSI 1–0 BHA · PSI 2–1 BHA · PSI 1–2 BHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BHAYANGKARA FC

DDWDD1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–3

PSIM YOGYAKARTA

DLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persija5+612
2Dewa United5+411
3Persita5+311
4Persepam Madura Utd5+310
5Persib Bandung5+310
6Bali United5+79
7Persebaya Surabaya5+29
8Bhayangkara FC5+27
9Persik Kediri5+27
10Arema FC5+26
11Pusamania Borneo5−26
12Java United505
13Garudayaksa5−15
14PSM Makassar5−45
15PSS Sleman5−14
16PSIM Yogyakarta5−71
17Isenmulang Kalteng5−91
18Persijap5−100

The competition's standings before kick-off.