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Bali United v Persijap

Bali United

6–1Full time

Persijap

Liga 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Bali United 6–1 Persijap BALI UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bali United win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 46 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bali United win at 57%.
0′KICK-OFF Bali United v Persijap
1′Little has changed for our model: Bali United 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Persijap
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bali United 0–0 Persijap
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bali United 1–0 Persijap
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Bali United 1–0 Persijap
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Bali United 2–0 Persijap · J. van der Sande
43′R. Balk scores for Bali United on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
47′SECOND HALF Bali United 2–0 Persijap
53′We said Bali United at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Bali United 3–0 Persijap · R. Balk
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Bali United 3–0 Persijap
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persijap · On: China · Off: P. Santamaria
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Persijap · On: Z. Afandi · Off: R. Saepul
63′Bali United find the net on 65′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Persijap · On: B. Ismu · Off: N. Yakubu
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bali United · On: T. Lam · Off: K. Arel
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 100% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bali United 3–0 Persijap
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bali United 4–0 Persijap · J. van der Sande
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Bali United 3–1 Persijap · J. van der Sande
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Bali United 4–1 Persijap
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Persijap · On: D. Galeh · Off: A. Fadlillah
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bali United · On: M. Dugandzic · Off: Queven Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · T. Goppel
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bali United 5–1 Persijap
81′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Y. Sogodogo · Persijap
81′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · J. van der Sande (assist Kadek Agung)
81′⚽ GOAL · 42' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · R. Balk
81′⚽ GOAL · 57' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · J. van der Sande (assist I. Jaya)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Persijap · On: China · Off: P. Santamaria
81′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Persijap · On: Z. Afandi · Off: R. Saepul
81′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Persijap · On: B. Ismu · Off: N. Yakubu
81′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bali United · On: T. Lam · Off: K. Arel
81′⚽ GOAL · 71' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · Juan Douglas
81′⚽ GOAL · 72' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · T. Goppel (assist J. van der Sande)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Persijap · On: D. Galeh · Off: A. Fadlillah
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bali United · On: M. Dugandzic · Off: Queven Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bali United 5–1 Persijap · J. van der Sande
85′78′ and it is 5–1: J. van der Sande on the scoresheet for Bali United. 5–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bali United · On: T. Made · Off: J. van der Sande
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bali United · On: J. Herdman · Off: R. Balk
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bali United · On: B. Adi · Off: Kadek Agung
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Bali United
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Bali United
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Bali United 6–1 Persijap · J. van der Sande
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Bali United 6–1 Persijap · I. Jaya
94′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Persijap
96′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Bali United
FTFULL TIME Bali United 6–1 Persijap
FTBali United 6–1 Persijap · Bali United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bali United win57%

Draw24%

Persijap win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bali United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Hauptmeijer

22 T. Geypens

4 K. Arel

18 Kadek Agung

24 R. Fajrin

88 Queven

8 T. Yachida

7 T. Goppel

11 R. Balk

20 J. van der Sande

41 I. Jaya

Coach · Johnny Jansen

Substitutes

21 · Wayan Arta

56 · F. Rustapa

16 · A. Dwi

13 · T. Lam

5 · B. Adi

27 · R. Barusu

42 · M. Simon

55 · T. Made

10 · J. Herdman

19 · J. Raven

45 · M. Dugandzic

Persijap

Formation not confirmed

20 S. Johansah

55 N. Yakubu

4 Tiri

44 S. Chica

14 R. Hidayat

8 P. Santamaria

21 R. Saepul

71 A. Fadlillah

10 Pirulo

17 Y. Sogodogo

70 V. Kalezic

Coach · Mario Lemos

Substitutes

26 · R. Handika

45 · D. Galeh

97 · A. Wadil

12 · Z. Afandi

22 · B. Ismu

27 · Reycredo Beremanda

9 · Juan Douglas

96 · A. Umanailo

25 · China

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bali United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Hauptmeijer

22 T. Geypens

4 K. Arel

18 Kadek Agung

24 R. Fajrin

88 Queven

8 T. Yachida

7 T. Goppel

11 R. Balk

20 J. van der Sande

41 I. Jaya

Coach · Johnny Jansen

Substitutes

21 · Wayan Arta

56 · F. Rustapa

16 · A. Dwi

13 · T. Lam

5 · B. Adi

27 · R. Barusu

42 · M. Simon

55 · T. Made

10 · J. Herdman

19 · J. Raven

45 · M. Dugandzic

Persijap

Formation not confirmed

20 S. Johansah

55 N. Yakubu

4 Tiri

44 S. Chica

14 R. Hidayat

8 P. Santamaria

21 R. Saepul

71 A. Fadlillah

10 Pirulo

17 Y. Sogodogo

70 V. Kalezic

Coach · Mario Lemos

Substitutes

26 · R. Handika

45 · D. Galeh

97 · A. Wadil

12 · Z. Afandi

22 · B. Ismu

27 · Reycredo Beremanda

9 · Juan Douglas

96 · A. Umanailo

25 · China

Our number · bali united winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Bali United a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bali united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bali United win	57%	62%	−5
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Persijap win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−5
Bali United or draw	81%	85%	−4
Bali United clean sheet	40%	–	–
Persijap clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 7.5 5.9 2.9 1 11.7 11.3 5.0 2 10.6 9.5 4.3 3 6.3 5.6 2.6 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bali United down, Persijap across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,568 Liga 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bali United at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Persijap away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Bali United, 0.91 for Persijap. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–0 PER · PER 1–2 BAL

Form · last six in Liga 1

BALI UNITED

LWWWWL2–3 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

PERSIJAP

WDDLLL3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	+4	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
3	Persija	3	+3	9
4	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
5	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
6	Bali United	3	+3	6
7	Persib Bandung	3	+2	6
8	Pusamania Borneo	4	−1	6
9	Arema FC	3	+4	5
10	Bhayangkara FC	3	+2	5
11	Persita	3	+1	5
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	−2	2
14	Java United	3	−2	1
15	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	−2	1
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0
17	Persijap	3	−4	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	0