Bali United v Garudayaksa prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 12:01

Bali United 5–0 Garudayaksa BALI UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bali United win~~57%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.275

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bali United win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bali United was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Bali United v Garudayaksa
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' A. Busnic · Garudayaksa
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′We said Bali United at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–34–20
45′SECOND HALF Bali United 1–0 Garudayaksa
46′We published Bali United at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
46′Bali United score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bali United 1–0 Garudayaksa
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Garudayaksa · On: C. Frydek · Off: R. Matsumura
47′HALF-TIME Bali United 1–0 Garudayaksa
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Garudayaksa
50′We published Bali United at 57%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bali United 2–0 Garudayaksa
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
51′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' A. Setiawan · Garudayaksa
52′Bali United ahead on 51′ through R. Balk. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Bali United win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
63′We published Bali United at 57%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Bali United 3–0 Garudayaksa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bali United · On: T. Receveur · Off: M. Dugandzic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bali United · On: J. Raven · Off: Kadek Agung
64′Queven scores for Bali United on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Garudayaksa · On: W. Prasetyo · Off: A. Setiawan
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Garudayaksa · On: M. Sihran · Off: J. Jean
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Garudayaksa · On: S. Saimima · Off: A. Busnic
75′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′Bali United score on 75′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Bali United 4–0 Garudayaksa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bali United · On: J. Herdman · Off: T. Lam
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bali United · On: T. Made · Off: I. Jaya
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Garudayaksa · On: A. Milanesta · Off: H. Hehanusa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Bali United · On: M. Simon · Off: Queven
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Bali United 5–0 Garudayaksa
89′Bali United find the net on 89′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′Bali United ahead on 87′ through T. Yachida. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Garudayaksa
FTFULL TIME Bali United 5–0 Garudayaksa
FTBali United 5–0 Garudayaksa · Bali United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bali United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bali United 57%, draw 22%, Garudayaksa 21%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Bali United v GarudayaksaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Bali United win57%

Draw22%

Garudayaksa win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueKapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium

Line-ups

Bali United

Garudayaksa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bali United

Garudayaksa

5Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bali United	5	+7	9
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bali United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Hauptmeijer

7 T. Goppel

13 T. Lam

22 T. Geypens

24 R. Fajrin

18 Kadek Agung

88 Queven

8 T. Yachida

41 I. Jaya

45 M. Dugandzic

11 R. Balk

Coach · Johnny Jansen

Substitutes

21 · Wayan Arta

56 · F. Rustapa

83 · A. Dwi

16 · Rizky Dwi

5 · B. Adi

27 · R. Barusu

42 · M. Simon

14 · T. Receveur

55 · T. Made

10 · J. Herdman

19 · J. Raven

Garudayaksa

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Holec

31 A. Setiawan

4 P. Ricardo

16 H. Hehanusa

56 A. Nico

22 A. Busnic

6 T. Numberi

10 R. Matsumura

70 C. Iury

9 B. Rubio

81 J. Jean

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · Y. Beny

14 · D. Fasya

27 · A. Claudio

33 · A. Milanesta

5 · W. Prasetyo

11 · C. Frydek

21 · A. Gigis

18 · A. Poerba

77 · S. Saimima

99 · M. Sihran

20 · S. Bagaskara

8 · A. Kaka

Our number · bali united winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

57% The market61%

Us57%

~~Market~~61%

We make Bali United a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bali United v Garudayaksa~~2.03 – 1.14

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~7 v 13

~~The market · Bali United win~~61% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bali United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bali United win	57%	61%	−4
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Garudayaksa win	21%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Bali United or draw	79%	82%	−3
Bali United clean sheet	33%	–	–
Garudayaksa clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 4.7 2.8 1 8.4 10.0 5.5 2.1 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.8 6.4 3.6 4 3.0 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bali United down, Garudayaksa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,586 Liga 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Bali United at home: 3.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Garudayaksa away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Bali United, 1.14 for Garudayaksa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

BALI UNITED

WWLWL2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 2–3

GARUDAYAKSA

DLDLW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	6	+6	14
2	Persija	5	+6	12
3	Persita	5	+3	11
4	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
5	Persepam Madura Utd	5	+3	10
6	Persib Bandung	5	+3	10
7	Bali United	5	+7	9
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	+2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	+2	6
11	Java United	6	0	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
13	Garudayaksa	5	−1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	−4	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	−1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	−9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	−8	1
18	Persijap	6	−12	0