Arema FC v Dewa United prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arema FCDrawDewa United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Dewa United 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dewa United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arema FC 35%, draw 25%, Dewa United 41%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Arema FC v Dewa UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Arema FC win35%

Draw25%

Dewa United win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueKanjuruhan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arema FC

Dewa United

4Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dewa united winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market47%

Us41%

~~Market~~47%

We make Dewa United a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arema FC v Dewa United~~1.42 – 1.56

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~12 v 2

~~The market · Dewa United win~~47% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dewa United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arema FC win	35%	28%	+7
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Dewa United win	41%	47%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Arema FC or draw	59%	53%	+6
Arema FC clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dewa United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.6 7.6 6.1 3.2 1 7.0 11.4 8.5 4.5 2 5.2 7.8 6.0 3.2 3 2.5 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arema FC down, Dewa United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Liga 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arema FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dewa United away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Arema FC, 1.56 for Dewa United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DEW 2–0 ARE · ARE 1–2 DEW · DEW 2–0 ARE · ARE 0–0 DEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

AREMA FC

WDDDLL4–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–5

DEWA UNITED

WDWWDW1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1