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Arema FC v Bhayangkara FC

Arema FC

2–2Full time

Bhayangkara FC

Liga 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Kanjuruhan Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Arema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC AREMA FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arema FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arema FC win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arema FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
1′KICK-OFF Arema FC v Bhayangkara FC
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Arema FC 0–1 Bhayangkara FC
14′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arema FC 0–1 Bhayangkara FC
21′M. Ocampo scores for Bhayangkara FC on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–59
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Arema FC win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Bhayangkara FC win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Arema FC win 19%)
30′We said Arema FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Arema FC 0–2 Bhayangkara FC · M. Ocampo
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Arema FC 0–2 Bhayangkara FC
41′32′ and it is 0–2: M. Ristovski on the scoresheet for Bhayangkara FC. 0–2 · 4–10–86
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Arema FC win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Arema FC
45′SECOND HALF Arema FC 0–2 Bhayangkara FC
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Bhayangkara FC
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arema FC · On: A. Fikri · Off: H. Yama
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Arema FC 1–2 Bhayangkara FC · M. Ristovski
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Arema FC 1–2 Bhayangkara FC
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Arema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC · MV
59′⚽ GOAL · 61' Arema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bhayangkara FC · On: F. Andika · Off: F. Missa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bhayangkara FC · On: A. Sojberg · Off: M. Ristovski
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Arema FC
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bhayangkara FC · On: N. Sadiki · Off: K. Sibille
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Arema FC · On: Gustavo Franca · Off: Careca
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Arema FC 2–3 Bhayangkara FC · Samuel Otusanya
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Arema FC 2–3 Bhayangkara FC
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Bhayangkara FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 85' M. Vera · Bhayangkara FC
FTFULL TIME Arema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC
FTArema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC · Arema FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arema FC win44%

Draw24%

Bhayangkara FC win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:30

Venue · Kanjuruhan Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arema FC

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Satryo

19 A. Maulana

3 Diego Landis

5 Walisson Maia

87 A. Farisi

25 Matheus Blade

66 H. Yama

98 MV

95 Careca

7 Gabriel Silva

34 Samuel Otusanya

Coach · Marquinhos

Substitutes

26 · S. Trisna

14 · A. Alfiansyah

24 · R. Darwis

4 · L. Guntara

8 · A. Fikri

6 · J. Guevara

13 · Tito Hamzah

21 · F. Arjidan

10 · Gustavo Franca

41 · D. Santoso

11 · S. Tuharea

9 · M. Zijlstra

Bhayangkara FC

Formation not confirmed

12 Awan Setho

2 P. Gede

6 K. Sibille

26 F. Murari

58 F. Missa

10 Allano

28 M. Vera

97 J. Brenes

17 M. Sidibe

7 M. Ristovski

99 M. Ocampo

Coach · Oscar Bruzon

Substitutes

71 · M. Fahri

11 · F. Andika

41 · M. Ferarri

4 · N. Sadiki

33 · M. Andhika

20 · S. Rizki

19 · T. Ichsan

27 · Y. Putra

96 · R. Kurnia

14 · R. Nugraha

23 · W. Subo

9 · A. Sojberg

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arema FC

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Satryo

19 A. Maulana

3 Diego Landis

5 Walisson Maia

87 A. Farisi

25 Matheus Blade

66 H. Yama

98 MV

95 Careca

7 Gabriel Silva

34 Samuel Otusanya

Coach · Marquinhos

Substitutes

26 · S. Trisna

14 · A. Alfiansyah

24 · R. Darwis

4 · L. Guntara

8 · A. Fikri

6 · J. Guevara

13 · Tito Hamzah

21 · F. Arjidan

10 · Gustavo Franca

41 · D. Santoso

11 · S. Tuharea

9 · M. Zijlstra

Bhayangkara FC

Formation not confirmed

12 Awan Setho

2 P. Gede

6 K. Sibille

26 F. Murari

58 F. Missa

10 Allano

28 M. Vera

97 J. Brenes

17 M. Sidibe

7 M. Ristovski

99 M. Ocampo

Coach · Oscar Bruzon

Substitutes

71 · M. Fahri

11 · F. Andika

41 · M. Ferarri

4 · N. Sadiki

33 · M. Andhika

20 · S. Rizki

19 · T. Ichsan

27 · Y. Putra

96 · R. Kurnia

14 · R. Nugraha

23 · W. Subo

9 · A. Sojberg

Our number · arema fc winPublished 10 Oct 09:34

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Arema FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arema fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arema FC win	44%	40%	+3
Draw	24%	27%	−4
Bhayangkara FC win	33%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	53%	+9
Both teams to score	63%	58%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	40%	33%	+7
Arema FC or draw	67%	68%	0
Arema FC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Bhayangkara FC clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.6 5.6 4.4 2.2 1 6.7 10.5 7.4 3.7 2 6.1 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 3.5 5.1 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arema FC down, Bhayangkara FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,568 Liga 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arema FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bhayangkara FC away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Arema FC, 1.48 for Bhayangkara FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BHA 2–1 ARE · ARE 2–1 BHA · ARE 0–0 BHA · BHA 0–2 ARE

Form · last six in Liga 1

AREMA FC

WWWWDD3–0 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

BHAYANGKARA FC

WLWDDW3–1 · 1–4 · 7–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	+4	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	4	+3	9
3	Persija	3	+3	9
4	Persebaya Surabaya	4	+2	8
5	Persik Kediri	4	+3	7
6	Bali United	3	+3	6
7	Persib Bandung	3	+2	6
8	Pusamania Borneo	4	−1	6
9	Arema FC	3	+4	5
10	Bhayangkara FC	3	+2	5
11	Persita	3	+1	5
12	PSM Makassar	3	−2	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	−2	2
14	Java United	3	−2	1
15	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	−2	1
16	PSS Sleman	3	−4	0
17	Persijap	3	−4	0
18	Isenmulang Kalteng	4	−10	0