Arema FC v Bali United prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arema FCDrawBali United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bali United 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bali United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Arema FC 37%, draw 22%, Bali United 41%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Arema FC v Bali UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Arema FC win37%

Draw22%

Bali United win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKanjuruhan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arema FC

Bali United

10Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bali united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Bali United a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arema FC v Bali United~~1.71 – 1.83

~~Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arema FC win	37%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Bali United win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Arema FC or draw	59%	–	–
Arema FC clean sheet	17%	–	–
Bali United clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 5.2 4.8 2.9 1 4.9 9.3 8.0 4.9 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.8 4.1 3 2.5 4.4 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arema FC down, Bali United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Liga 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arema FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bali United away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Arema FC, 1.83 for Bali United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARE 3–4 BAL · BAL 1–0 ARE · ARE 1–0 BAL · BAL 0–0 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

AREMA FC

WDDDLL4–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–5

BALI UNITED

WWLWLW2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persija	6	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	+12	12
5	Persita	5	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	−3	8
11	Java United	7	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	−2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	−2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	−6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	−2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	−9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	−8	2
18	Persijap	7	−12	1