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SC Delhi v ATK Mohun Bagan

SC Delhi
1–2Full time
ATK Mohun Bagan

Indian Super League · FRI 16 OCT · Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31
SC Delhi 1–2 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK MOHUN BAGAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ATK Mohun Bagan win52%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.347
The market’s Brier score0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ATK Mohun Bagan win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: ATK Mohun Bagan 52% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 21–25–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SC Delhi v ATK Mohun Bagan
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' ATK Mohun Bagan
  5. 24′SC Delhi score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 52–27–21
  6. 24′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 52–27–21
  7. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' SC Delhi 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
  8. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' ATK Mohun Bagan win: 52% at kick-off, 21% now
  9. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' SC Delhi win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was ATK Mohun Bagan win 21%)
  10. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' ATK Mohun Bagan
  11. 30′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–27–19
  12. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 54–27–19
  13. 44′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
  14. 45′HALF-TIME SC Delhi 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
  15. 46′SECOND HALF SC Delhi 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
  16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' ATK Mohun Bagan win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  17. 56′ATK Mohun Bagan find the net on 56′. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–47–36
  18. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' SC Delhi 1–1 ATK Mohun Bagan
  19. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' ATK Mohun Bagan win: 52% at kick-off, 36% now
  20. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was SC Delhi win 17%)
  21. 57′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 17–48–35
  22. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' ATK Mohun Bagan
  23. 58′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 17–49–34
  24. 60′A goal for ATK Mohun Bagan on 60′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–83
  25. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' SC Delhi 1–2 ATK Mohun Bagan
  26. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' ATK Mohun Bagan win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
  27. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' ATK Mohun Bagan win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
  28. 61′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  29. 61′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  30. 64′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' SC Delhi · On: C. Fernandes · Off: Y. Sanatomba Singh
  32. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' SC Delhi
  33. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' ATK Mohun Bagan
  34. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: M. Singh · Off: A. Thapa
  35. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: S. Zeljkovic · Off: L. Erwin
  36. 76′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  37. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' ATK Mohun Bagan win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  38. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: L. Colaco · Off: D. Drazic
  39. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: S. Samad · Off: Figueira
  40. 84′We said ATK Mohun Bagan at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  41. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' SC Delhi
  42. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' SC Delhi · On: A. Lalrochana · Off: L. Hangshing
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: S. Bose · Off: L. Chhangte
  44. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 70' D. Viafara · SC Delhi
  45. FTFULL TIME SC Delhi 1–2 ATK Mohun Bagan
  46. FTSC Delhi 1–2 ATK Mohun Bagan · ATK Mohun Bagan win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ATK Mohun Bagan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Delhi 20%, draw 28%, ATK Mohun Bagan 52%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on SC Delhi v ATK Mohun BaganBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

SC Delhi win20%
Draw28%
ATK Mohun Bagan win52%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueJawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Line-ups

SC Delhi

ATK Mohun Bagan

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Delhi

ATK Mohun Bagan

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 12 Oct · Indian Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9SC Delhi1−10
12ATK Mohun Bagan1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SC Delhi

Formation not confirmed

20 N. Fernandes

19 L. Hangshing

45 N. Junior

28 D. Viafara

41 M. Mohammed

4 L. Hnamte

24 M. Azhar

25 Y. Sanatomba Singh

10 J. Pena

7 Rodriguinho

23 M. Aimen

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · V. Yadav

15 · C. Fernandes

6 · A. Mehta

66 · A. Mehra

18 · A. Lalrochana

8 · R. Ndayishimiye

30 · D. Singh

99 · C. Fortes

27 · K. Sourav

ATK Mohun Bagan

4-4-2

1 V. Kaith

5 M. Singh

2 R. Bheke

21 A. Rodriguez

27 T. Singh

9 L. Chhangte

6 A. Thapa

45 Apuia

71 D. Drazic

10 Figueira

19 L. Erwin

Coach · Panagiotis Dilmperis

Substitutes

24 · S. Zahid

8 · S. Zeljkovic

15 · S. Bose

40 · A. Saji

18 · S. Samad

16 · A. Suryavanshi

11 · M. Singh

72 · S. Bhat

7 · L. Colaco

Our number · atk mohun bagan winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off
52% The market68%
Us52%
Market68%

We make ATK Mohun Bagan a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SC Delhi v ATK Mohun Bagan0.91 – 1.61
Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 OctW0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1
Table places · points 0 v 09 v 12
The market · ATK Mohun Bagan win68% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 14:26
Our probability · ATK Mohun Bagan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SC Delhi win20%11%+9
Draw28%20%+8
ATK Mohun Bagan win52%68%−16
Over 2.5 goals46%60%−14
Both teams to score48%51%−3
Over 1.5 goals73%81%−8
Over 3.5 goals25%41%−16
SC Delhi or draw48%32%+16
SC Delhi clean sheet21%––
ATK Mohun Bagan clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 9.8 11.6 10.3 5.6 2.4 1 6.1 12.8 9.0 4.9 2.0 2 3.5 5.3 4.1 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SC Delhi down, ATK Mohun Bagan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsATK 2–1 SCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 Oct

SC DELHI

L2–3

ATK MOHUN BAGAN

L0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kerala Blasters1+23
2Bengaluru1+13
3Churchill Brothers1+13
4Minerva Punjab1+13
5NorthEast United1+13
6Chennaiyin101
7Goa101
8East Bengal II000
9SC Delhi1−10
10Odisha1−10
11Mumbai City1−10
12ATK Mohun Bagan1−10
13Inter Kashi1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.