Odisha v NorthEast United prediction · Indian Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Odisha 0–0 NorthEast United NORTHEAST UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NorthEast United win~~38%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.819

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NorthEast United win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: NorthEast United was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–26–37
1′KICK-OFF Odisha v NorthEast United
45′HALF-TIME Odisha 0–0 NorthEast United
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was NorthEast United win 34%)
46′SECOND HALF Odisha 0–0 NorthEast United
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Odisha
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–42–29
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' NorthEast United win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
63′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Odisha
67′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
70′9 shots for NorthEast United, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 22–56–22
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Odisha · On: N. Sudeesh · Off: J. Zohminghlua
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' NorthEast United
74′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' NorthEast United win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
80′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–14
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NorthEast United · On: P. Gogoi · Off: J. Madathil
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NorthEast United · On: E. Gonzalez · Off: N. Ninkovic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Odisha · On: R. Ali · Off: Eid Mahmoud
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Odisha · On: M. Molina · Off: G. Aburjania
84′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' NorthEast United win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Odisha
91′We said NorthEast United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Odisha
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' NorthEast United · On: R. Tlang · Off: M. L. Nickson
94′🟨 YELLOW · 89' M. Molina · Odisha
FTFULL TIME Odisha 0–0 NorthEast United
FTOdisha 0–0 NorthEast United · NorthEast United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with NorthEast United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Odisha 36%, draw 26%, NorthEast United 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Odisha v NorthEast UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Odisha win36%

Draw26%

NorthEast United win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueKalinga Stadium

Line-ups

Odisha

4-2-3-1

NorthEast United

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odisha

NorthEast United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 18 Oct · Indian Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	NorthEast United	2	+4	6
9	Odisha	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Odisha

4-2-3-1

55 Hrithik Tiwari

34 Vanlalzuidika Chhakchhuak

24 Moirangthem Thoiba Singh

6 Saurabh Bhanwala

23 Jeremy Zohminghlua

66 Stephen Eze

7 Puitea

25 K Lalrinfela

29 Giorgi Aburjania

93 Mahmoud Eid

8 Everton

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Sachin Suresh

33 · Edwin Sydney Vanspaul

22 · Nandhakumar Sekar

17 · Imran Khan

12 · Manu Molina

39 · Narendra Naik

15 · V.P. Suhair

11 · Rahim Ali

77 · Nihal Sudheesh

NorthEast United

4-3-3

1 Gurmeet Singh

66 Nikhil Barla

19 Eneko Satrustegui

4 Pramveer Singh

7 Abdul Rabeeh

13 Muthu Irulandi Mayakkannan

10 Nikola Ninković

8 Antonio Moyano

14 Alaeddine Ajaraie

15 Louis Nickson Macarton

80 Jithin MS

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · Dipesh Chauhan

88 · Mark Zothanpuia

2 · Soraisham Dinesh Singh

22 · Redeem Tlang

26 · Saikhom Thoiba

11 · Parthib Gogoi

18 · Lalrinzuala Lalbiaknia

27 · Aman CK

9 · Ethyan González

Our number · northeast united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market45%

Us38%

~~Market~~45%

We make NorthEast United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odisha v NorthEast United~~1.57 – 1.60

~~Form · Indian Super League this season · since 12 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~9 v 2

~~The market · NorthEast United win~~45% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NorthEast United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odisha win	36%	27%	+9
Draw	26%	28%	−2
NorthEast United win	38%	45%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	51%	+10
Both teams to score	63%	55%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	83%	74%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	39%	31%	+8
Odisha or draw	62%	55%	+7
Odisha clean sheet	21%	–	–
NorthEast United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.0 5.6 5.4 2.9 1 5.4 11.8 8.1 4.4 2 5.3 8.0 6.3 3.4 3 2.8 4.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odisha down, NorthEast United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 753 Indian Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odisha at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). NorthEast United away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Odisha, 1.60 for NorthEast United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–4 ODI · ODI 2–2 NOR · NOR 3–2 ODI · NOR 3–0 ODI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 12 Oct

ODISHA

LD1–2 · 1–1

NORTHEAST UNITED

WW1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	East Bengal II	2	+8	6
2	NorthEast United	2	+4	6
3	Bengaluru	2	+3	6
4	Minerva Punjab	2	+1	4
5	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
6	Kerala Blasters	2	−1	3
7	Churchill Brothers	2	−3	3
8	Goa	1	0	1
9	Odisha	2	−1	1
10	Mumbai City	2	−1	1
11	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1
12	Inter Kashi	3	−6	1
13	SC Delhi	2	−2	0