NorthEast United v Kerala Blasters prediction · Indian Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

NorthEast United 4–1 Kerala Blasters NORTHEAST UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NorthEast United win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NorthEast United win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF NorthEast United v Kerala Blasters
1′Little has changed for our model: NorthEast United 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Kerala Blasters
15′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–14
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' NorthEast United 1–0 Kerala Blasters
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
16′NorthEast United find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
17′NorthEast United ahead on 15′ through A. Ajaraie. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
33′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME NorthEast United 2–0 Kerala Blasters
45′SECOND HALF NorthEast United 2–0 Kerala Blasters
48′NorthEast United find the net on 45′. 1–0 · 72–20–8
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kerala Blasters · On: K. Singh · Off: A. Ranawade
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kerala Blasters · On: S. Singh · Off: H. Ruivah
49′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' NorthEast United 2–0 Kerala Blasters
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
58′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' NorthEast United 2–1 Kerala Blasters
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 76% now
61′Kerala Blasters score on 60′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–5
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–19–5
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Kerala Blasters
68′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
71′NorthEast United find the net on 71′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' NorthEast United 3–1 Kerala Blasters
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NorthEast United · On: N. Ninkovic · Off: A. Ajaraie
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' NorthEast United · On: C. Aman · Off: J. Madathil
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kerala Blasters · On: M. K. Sanan · Off: V. Mohanan
83′A goal for NorthEast United on 82′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′We said NorthEast United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
83′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' NorthEast United win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' NorthEast United 4–1 Kerala Blasters
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NorthEast United · On: M. Zothanpuia · Off: M. L. Nickson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kerala Blasters · On: N. Kosovic · Off: A. Luna
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kerala Blasters · On: F. Ndiaye · Off: M. Yansane
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' NorthEast United
FTFULL TIME NorthEast United 4–1 Kerala Blasters
FTNorthEast United 4–1 Kerala Blasters · NorthEast United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NorthEast United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NorthEast United 40%, draw 28%, Kerala Blasters 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on NorthEast United v Kerala BlastersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NorthEast United win40%

Draw28%

Kerala Blasters win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueIndira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Line-ups

NorthEast United

4-2-3-1

Kerala Blasters

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NorthEast United

Kerala Blasters

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 11 Oct · Indian Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kerala Blasters	1	+2	3
5	NorthEast United	1	+1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NorthEast United

4-2-3-1

1 G. Singh

66 N. Barla

19 E. Satrustegui

4 P. Ranbir

7 A. Rabeeh A K

13 M. Muthu

8 A. Moyano

80 J. Madathil

15 M. L. Nickson

14 A. Ajaraie

9 E. Gonzalez

Coach · Juan Benali

Substitutes

20 · D. Chauhan

3 · T. Singh

21 · R. Yadav

10 · N. Ninkovic

88 · M. Zothanpuia

26 · S. Thoiba

11 · P. Gogoi

27 · C. Aman

22 · R. Tlang

Kerala Blasters

4-4-2

31 A. Shaikh

4 H. Ruivah

13 J. Bolton

27 A. Dohling

5 S. Sharma

55 A. Ranawade

6 F. Lallawmawma

8 V. Mohanan

9 A. Green

10 A. Luna

99 M. Yansane

Coach · David Catala

Substitutes

1 · A. Singh

44 · F. Ndiaye

3 · S. Singh

19 · J. Jayan

23 · N. Kosovic

47 · Ebindas Y

11 · M. K. Sanan

45 · S. M S

7 · K. Singh

Our number · northeast united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make NorthEast United a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NorthEast United v Kerala Blasters~~1.50 – 1.35

~~Form · Indian Super League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~5 v 2

~~The market · NorthEast United win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NorthEast United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NorthEast United win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Kerala Blasters win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
NorthEast United or draw	67%	66%	+1
NorthEast United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Kerala Blasters clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.6 6.5 5.3 2.4 1 7.4 12.9 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.3 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NorthEast United down, Kerala Blasters across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 749 Indian Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NorthEast United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kerala Blasters away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for NorthEast United, 1.35 for Kerala Blasters. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KER 1–1 NOR · KER 0–0 NOR · NOR 1–1 KER · NOR 2–0 KER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 11 Oct

NORTHEAST UNITED

W1–0

KERALA BLASTERS

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bengaluru	2	+3	6
2	Kerala Blasters	1	+2	3
3	Churchill Brothers	1	+1	3
4	Minerva Punjab	1	+1	3
5	NorthEast United	1	+1	3
6	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
7	Goa	1	0	1
8	Odisha	2	−1	1
9	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1
10	Inter Kashi	2	−2	1
11	East Bengal II	0	0	0
12	Mumbai City	1	−1	0
13	SC Delhi	2	−2	0