NorthEast United v Bengaluru prediction · Indian Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NorthEast UnitedDrawBengaluru

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bengaluru 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bengaluru are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NorthEast United 34%, draw 28%, Bengaluru 39%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on NorthEast United v BengaluruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

NorthEast United win34%

Draw28%

Bengaluru win39%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueIndira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NorthEast United

Bengaluru

6Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · Indian Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	NorthEast United	2	+4	6
3	Bengaluru	2	+3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bengaluru winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bengaluru a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NorthEast United v Bengaluru~~1.39 – 1.50

~~Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 Oct~~W2 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~2 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NorthEast United win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bengaluru win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
NorthEast United or draw	61%	–	–
NorthEast United clean sheet	23%	–	–
Bengaluru clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.4 7.0 6.3 3.2 1 6.4 12.8 8.4 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NorthEast United down, Bengaluru across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 753 Indian Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NorthEast United at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bengaluru away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for NorthEast United, 1.50 for Bengaluru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–1 NOR · NOR 0–2 BEN · BEN 2–2 NOR · BEN 1–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 Oct

NORTHEAST UNITED

WWD1–0 · 4–1 · 0–0

BENGALURU

WW3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	East Bengal II	2	+8	6
2	NorthEast United	2	+4	6
3	Bengaluru	2	+3	6
4	Minerva Punjab	2	+1	4
5	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
6	Kerala Blasters	2	−1	3
7	Churchill Brothers	2	−3	3
8	Goa	1	0	1
9	Odisha	2	−1	1
10	Mumbai City	2	−1	1
11	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1
12	Inter Kashi	3	−6	1
13	SC Delhi	2	−2	0