NorthEast United v ATK Mohun Bagan prediction · Indian Super League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

NorthEast United 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK MOHUN BAGAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ATK Mohun Bagan win~~52%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.950

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ATK Mohun Bagan win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ATK Mohun Bagan 52% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 23–24–54
1′KICK-OFF NorthEast United v ATK Mohun Bagan
8′Little has changed for our model: ATK Mohun Bagan 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' NorthEast United
45′HALF-TIME NorthEast United 0–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
46′SECOND HALF NorthEast United 0–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NorthEast United · On: J. Madathil · Off: A. Akhtar
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NorthEast United · On: J. Madathil · Off: A. Akhtar
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: L. Colaco · Off: S. Samad
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: Figueira · Off: L. Erwin
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' NorthEast United · On: P. Gogoi · Off: M. L. Nickson
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' NorthEast United · On: N. Ninkovic · Off: E. Gonzalez
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' NorthEast United
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: A. Thapa · Off: S. Zeljkovic
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' NorthEast United · On: S. Thoiba · Off: E. Satrustegui
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' ATK Mohun Bagan · On: S. Bhat · Off: D. Drazic
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' NorthEast United · On: R. Tlang · Off: N. Barla
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' NorthEast United 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' NorthEast United
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' ATK Mohun Bagan
FTFULL TIME NorthEast United 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan
FTNorthEast United 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan · ATK Mohun Bagan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

NorthEast United win22%

Draw26%

ATK Mohun Bagan win52%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:00

VenueIndira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Line-ups

NorthEast United

4-1-4-1

ATK Mohun Bagan

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

NorthEast United

ATK Mohun Bagan

146Days since last match144

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

NorthEast United

4-1-4-1

1 G. Singh

66 N. Barla

12 A. Akhtar

19 E. Satrustegui

4 P. Ranbir

13 M. Muthu

15 M. L. Nickson

9 E. Gonzalez

8 A. Moyano

7 A. Rabeeh A K

14 A. Ajaraie

Coach · Juan Benali

Substitutes

20 · D. Chauhan

3 · T. Singh

10 · N. Ninkovic

88 · M. Zothanpuia

26 · S. Thoiba

80 · J. Madathil

11 · P. Gogoi

27 · C. Aman

22 · R. Tlang

ATK Mohun Bagan

4-4-2

1 V. Kaith

5 M. Singh

2 R. Bheke

21 A. Rodriguez

27 T. Singh

9 L. Chhangte

8 S. Zeljkovic

45 Apuia

71 D. Drazic

18 S. Samad

19 L. Erwin

Coach · Panagiotis Dilmperis

Substitutes

24 · S. Zahid

15 · S. Bose

40 · A. Saji

6 · A. Thapa

16 · A. Suryavanshi

10 · Figueira

11 · M. Singh

72 · S. Bhat

7 · L. Colaco

Our number · atk mohun bagan winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

52% The market47%

Us52%

~~Market~~47%

We make ATK Mohun Bagan a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atk mohun bagan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NorthEast United win	22%	26%	−4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
ATK Mohun Bagan win	52%	47%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	50%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	72%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	29%	+3
NorthEast United or draw	48%	53%	−5
NorthEast United clean sheet	18%	–	–
ATK Mohun Bagan clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 9.1 9.1 5.4 2.5 1 5.0 12.3 9.3 5.5 2.5 2 3.5 5.8 4.9 2.9 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NorthEast United down, ATK Mohun Bagan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 744 Indian Super League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.15 goals a meeting; 8 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NorthEast United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). ATK Mohun Bagan away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for NorthEast United, 1.76 for ATK Mohun Bagan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.15

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 13

~~Both scored~~9 of 13

~~Last meetings~~NOR 0–1 ATK · NOR 0–2 ATK · ATK 3–2 NOR · ATK 4–2 NOR

Form · last six in Indian Super League

NORTHEAST UNITED

DLLWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–0

ATK MOHUN BAGAN

WWDDDW3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kerala Blasters	1	+2	3
2	Bengaluru	1	+1	3
3	Churchill Brothers	1	+1	3
4	Chennaiyin	1	0	1
5	Goa	1	0	1
6	SC Delhi	1	−1	0
7	Mumbai City	1	−1	0
8	Inter Kashi	1	−2	0