Minerva Punjab v Odisha prediction · Indian Super League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 17:54

Minerva Punjab 2–1 Odisha MINERVA PUNJAB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minerva Punjab win~~43%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.495

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Minerva Punjab win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Minerva Punjab v Odisha
1′⚽ GOAL Minerva Punjab 1–0 Odisha
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
2′A goal for Minerva Punjab on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
4′R. Messi Bouli scores for Minerva Punjab on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
4′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Odisha
7′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Vanlalzuidika · Odisha
14′Much as we predicted: Minerva Punjab was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 1–1 · 42–27–31
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Minerva Punjab 1–1 Odisha
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
15′15′ and it is 1–1: Minerva Punjab have scored. 1–1 · 42–27–31
17′18′ and it is 1–1: Odisha have scored. 1–1 · 42–28–31
45′SECOND HALF Minerva Punjab 1–1 Odisha
47′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Odisha
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Minerva Punjab win 34%)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 50' R. Messi Bouli · Minerva Punjab
54′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 32–43–25
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 32% now
57′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–24
61′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Odisha · On: Everton Nascimento · Off: G. Aburjania
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Odisha · On: Mafela · Off: N. Sekar
68′11.0 shots for Minerva Punjab, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 25–56–20
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Minerva Punjab · On: V. Yadav · Off: Diego Raposo
69′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Minerva Punjab · On: B. Sharma · Off: L. Rishikanta Meitei
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Minerva Punjab · On: M. Inam · Off: M. Suhail F
76′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–67–15
80′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–11
82′13.0 shots for Minerva Punjab, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–79–10
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Odisha · On: N. Sudeesh · Off: Eid Mahmoud
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Odisha · On: E. S. Vanspaul · Off: M. Molina
84′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Minerva Punjab · On: G. Singh · Off: A. Planas
90′Minerva Punjab find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′We said Minerva Punjab at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Odisha · On: V. Suhair · Off: S. Gama
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Minerva Punjab
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
94′We published Minerva Punjab at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Minerva Punjab 2–1 Odisha · R. Messi Bouli
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Minerva Punjab win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Minerva Punjab win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
–We published Minerva Punjab at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–14
FTFULL TIME Minerva Punjab 2–1 Odisha
FTMinerva Punjab 2–1 Odisha · Minerva Punjab win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Minerva Punjab v OdishaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Minerva Punjab win43%

Draw27%

Odisha win30%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueJawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Line-ups

Minerva Punjab

4-1-3-2

Odisha

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Minerva Punjab

Odisha

146Days since last match146

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Minerva Punjab

4-1-3-2

1 A. Singh

12 K. Lhungdim

3 B. Varghese

4 N. Prabhu

2 M. Uvais

22 L. Rishikanta Meitei

11 Diego Raposo

6 R. Shabong

17 M. Suhail F

28 R. Messi Bouli

10 A. Planas

Coach · Pavlos Dermitzakis

Substitutes

78 · M. Shabir

74 · N. S. Meitei

27 · K. Soram

8 · M. Inam

66 · N. Shaiza

18 · B. Sharma

91 · G. Singh

14 · V. Yadav

99 · K. Sanathoi Singh

Odisha

4-2-3-1

55 H. Tiwari

34 Vanlalzuidika

24 M. Thoiba

66 S. Eze

13 S. Gama

12 M. Molina

7 Puitea

22 N. Sekar

29 G. Aburjania

11 R. Ali

93 Eid Mahmoud

Coach · Purushothaman Thekkathara Gopalakrishnan

Substitutes

99 · M. Dubey

6 · S. Bhanwala

33 · E. S. Vanspaul

3 · S. Bhattacharya

25 · Mafela

47 · A. Vazhappill

8 · Everton Nascimento

77 · N. Sudeesh

15 · V. Suhair

Our number · minerva punjab winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

43% The market55%

Us43%

~~Market~~55%

We make Minerva Punjab a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Minerva Punjab v Odisha~~1.59 – 1.31

~~Last six in Indian Super League~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~The market · Minerva Punjab win~~55% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · minerva punjab win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minerva Punjab win	43%	55%	−12
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Odisha win	30%	20%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%	+5
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	73%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	29%	+4
Minerva Punjab or draw	70%	80%	−10
Minerva Punjab clean sheet	28%	–	–
Odisha clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.3 6.1 4.8 2.1 1 7.6 12.6 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.7 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minerva Punjab down, Odisha across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 745 Indian Super League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minerva Punjab at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Odisha away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Minerva Punjab, 1.31 for Odisha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ODI 2–3 MIN · ODI 1–1 MIN · MIN 2–1 ODI · ODI 3–1 MIN

Form · last six in Indian Super League

MINERVA PUNJAB

WDWDWL3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2

ODISHA

LLDWLD1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kerala Blasters	1	+2	3
2	Bengaluru	1	+1	3
3	Churchill Brothers	1	+1	3
4	NorthEast United	1	+1	3
5	Chennaiyin	1	0	1
6	Goa	1	0	1
7	SC Delhi	1	−1	0
8	Mumbai City	1	−1	0
9	ATK Mohun Bagan	1	−1	0
10	Inter Kashi	1	−2	0