Kerala Blasters v Mumbai City prediction · Indian Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kerala BlastersDrawMumbai City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mumbai City 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mumbai City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kerala Blasters 29%, draw 30%, Mumbai City 42%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Kerala Blasters v Mumbai CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kerala Blasters win29%

Draw30%

Mumbai City win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueJawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kerala Blasters

Mumbai City

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 19 Oct · Indian Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kerala Blasters	2	−1	3
10	Mumbai City	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mumbai city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Mumbai City a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kerala Blasters v Mumbai City~~1.13 – 1.42

~~Form · Indian Super League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~6 v 10

~~The market · Mumbai City win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mumbai City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kerala Blasters win	29%	33%	−4
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Mumbai City win	42%	39%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Kerala Blasters or draw	58%	61%	−3
Kerala Blasters clean sheet	25%	–	–
Mumbai City clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 9.9 9.5 7.8 3.8 1 7.2 13.9 8.5 4.1 2 5.0 6.9 4.8 2.3 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kerala Blasters down, Mumbai City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 754 Indian Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kerala Blasters at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mumbai City away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Kerala Blasters, 1.42 for Mumbai City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KER 0–1 MUM · MUM 1–0 KER · KER 1–0 MUM · MUM 4–2 KER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 11 Oct

KERALA BLASTERS

WL2–0 · 1–4

MUMBAI CITY

LD1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NorthEast United	3	+4	7
2	East Bengal II	2	+8	6
3	Bengaluru	2	+3	6
4	Minerva Punjab	2	+1	4
5	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
6	Kerala Blasters	2	−1	3
7	Churchill Brothers	2	−3	3
8	Odisha	3	−1	2
9	Goa	1	0	1
10	Mumbai City	2	−1	1
11	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1
12	Inter Kashi	3	−6	1
13	SC Delhi	2	−2	0