Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
Back

Home › Football › Indian Super League › Goa v Chennaiyin

India flag

Goa v Chennaiyin

Goa
1–1Full time
Chennaiyin

Indian Super League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33
Goa 1–1 Chennaiyin GOA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Goa win56%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.894
The market’s Brier score0.942

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goa win at 56%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Goa was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Goa v Chennaiyin
  4. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Goa
  5. 38′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Goa · On: M. J. Ortiz · Off: Franchu
  6. 43′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Goa · On: M. J. Ortiz · Off: Franchu
  7. 46′We said Goa at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
  8. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Goa win: 56% at kick-off, 44% now
  9. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Goa
  10. 47′SECOND HALF Goa 0–0 Chennaiyin
  11. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chennaiyin · On: B. Miranda · Off: B. Fernandes
  12. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chennaiyin · On: M. Talal · Off: N. Stojanovic
  13. 63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Goa 0–0 Chennaiyin
  14. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Goa 0–1 Chennaiyin
  15. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Goa · On: I. Vanlalruatfela · Off: M. Nemil
  16. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Goa · On: H. Patre · Off: A. Vallejo
  17. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Goa 1–1 Chennaiyin · I. Yadwad
  18. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Goa 1–1 Chennaiyin
  19. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Chennaiyin · On: P. Laldinpuia · Off: N. Bhutia
  20. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Chennaiyin · On: N. Meitei · Off: I. Yadwad
  21. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goa · On: R. Kharbudon · Off: P. Gaonkar
  22. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goa · On: H. Singh · Off: A. Sangwan
  23. FTFULL TIME Goa 1–1 Chennaiyin
  24. FTGoa 1–1 Chennaiyin · Goa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Goa win56%
Draw26%
Chennaiyin win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Goa

Formation not confirmed

45 B. Jackson

48 K. Singh

3 S. Jhingan

15 A. Zalaya

14 A. Sangwan

21 U. Singh

22 P. Gaonkar

5 A. Vallejo

44 M. Nemil

9 Chiki

28 Franchu

Coach · –

Substitutes

72 · L. Sharma

35 · R. Kharbudon

29 · N. Tamang

41 · S. Carvalho

23 · H. Patre

8 · H. Singh

7 · M. J. Ortiz

19 · I. Vanlalruatfela

40 · H. Vaiphei

Chennaiyin

4-3-3

13 M. Nawaz

27 N. Bhutia

4 N. Reis

2 E. Imanishimwe

5 M. Saheef

8 N. Stojanovic

25 G. Martins

14 A. Chhetri

24 I. Yadwad

7 Ramon Tanque

42 B. Fernandes

Coach · Clifford Miranda

Substitutes

1 · S. Mitra

3 · P. Laldinpuia

32 · D. Biswas

47 · K. Pereira

10 · M. Talal

17 · L. Chawngthu

43 · N. Meitei

16 · S. Rawat

11 · B. Miranda

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Goa

Formation not confirmed

45 B. Jackson

48 K. Singh

3 S. Jhingan

15 A. Zalaya

14 A. Sangwan

21 U. Singh

22 P. Gaonkar

5 A. Vallejo

44 M. Nemil

9 Chiki

28 Franchu

Coach · –

Substitutes

72 · L. Sharma

35 · R. Kharbudon

29 · N. Tamang

41 · S. Carvalho

23 · H. Patre

8 · H. Singh

7 · M. J. Ortiz

19 · I. Vanlalruatfela

40 · H. Vaiphei

Chennaiyin

4-3-3

13 M. Nawaz

27 N. Bhutia

4 N. Reis

2 E. Imanishimwe

5 M. Saheef

8 N. Stojanovic

25 G. Martins

14 A. Chhetri

24 I. Yadwad

7 Ramon Tanque

42 B. Fernandes

Coach · Clifford Miranda

Substitutes

1 · S. Mitra

3 · P. Laldinpuia

32 · D. Biswas

47 · K. Pereira

10 · M. Talal

17 · L. Chawngthu

43 · N. Meitei

16 · S. Rawat

11 · B. Miranda

Our number · goa winPublished 10 Oct 15:19
56% The market58%
Us56%
Market58%

We make Goa a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1910 OCT 03:56
Our probability · goa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Goa win56%58%−2
Draw26%24%+2
Chennaiyin win19%18%+1
Over 2.5 goals51%50%+1
Both teams to score51%50%+1
Over 1.5 goals76%73%+3
Over 3.5 goals29%30%0
Goa or draw81%82%−1
Goa clean sheet40%––
Chennaiyin clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 8.3 4.9 3.0 1 10.4 12.1 5.1 2 10.3 9.4 4.4 3 6.2 5.6 2.6 4 2.9 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Goa down, Chennaiyin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2020
Goals a meeting3.08
Over 2.58 of 12
Both scored7 of 12
Last meetingsCHE 1–1 GOA · GOA 2–0 CHE · CHE 2–2 GOA · GOA 2–1 CHE

Form · last six in Indian Super League

GOA

WWWLDL3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

CHENNAIYIN

WDLLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

No league table for this competition.