ATK Mohun Bagan v Chennaiyin prediction · Indian Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ATK Mohun BaganDrawChennaiyin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ATK Mohun Bagan 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ATK Mohun Bagan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ATK Mohun Bagan 63%, draw 24%, Chennaiyin 13%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on ATK Mohun Bagan v ChennaiyinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

ATK Mohun Bagan win63%

Draw24%

Chennaiyin win13%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueVivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ATK Mohun Bagan

Chennaiyin

10Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · Indian Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
11	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atk mohun bagan winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

63% The market72%

Us63%

~~Market~~72%

We make ATK Mohun Bagan a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ATK Mohun Bagan v Chennaiyin~~1.95 – 0.76

~~Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~5 v 11

~~The market · ATK Mohun Bagan win~~72% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ATK Mohun Bagan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ATK Mohun Bagan win	63%	72%	−9
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Chennaiyin win	13%	9%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	43%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw	87%	91%	−4
ATK Mohun Bagan clean sheet	47%	–	–
Chennaiyin clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.5 3.8 2.1 1 11.7 11.1 3.8 2 12.4 9.2 3.6 3 8.1 5.9 2.3 4 4.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ATK Mohun Bagan down, Chennaiyin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 754 Indian Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Indian Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ATK Mohun Bagan at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chennaiyin away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan, 0.76 for Chennaiyin. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATK 2–0 CHE · ATK 2–0 CHE · CHE 0–0 ATK · ATK 1–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Indian Super League this season · since 10 Oct

ATK MOHUN BAGAN

LW0–1 · 2–1

CHENNAIYIN

DL1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	East Bengal II	2	+8	6
2	NorthEast United	2	+4	6
3	Bengaluru	2	+3	6
4	Minerva Punjab	2	+1	4
5	ATK Mohun Bagan	2	0	3
6	Kerala Blasters	2	−1	3
7	Churchill Brothers	2	−3	3
8	Goa	1	0	1
9	Odisha	2	−1	1
10	Mumbai City	2	−1	1
11	Chennaiyin	2	−2	1
12	Inter Kashi	3	−6	1
13	SC Delhi	2	−2	0