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Vikingur Reykjavik v IA Akranes

Vikingur Reykjavik

2–2Full time

IA Akranes

Úrvalsdeild · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:46

Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vikingur Reykjavik win~~76%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vikingur Reykjavik win at 76%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vikingur Reykjavik was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–14–10
21′Vikingur Reykjavik ahead on 17′ through A. Thrandarson. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
42′M. P. Ellertsson scores for IA Akranes on 36′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–10–3
45′M. P. Ellertsson scores for IA Akranes on 36′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–10–3
48′Much as we predicted: Vikingur Reykjavik was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 87% now. 2–1 · 87–10–3
56′53′ and it is 2–2: O. Ekroth on the scoresheet for IA Akranes. 2–2 · 54–33–13
69′53′ and it is 2–2: O. Ekroth on the scoresheet for IA Akranes. 2–2 · 42–46–12
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 54% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 54% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: D. Jonsson · Off: A. Finnbogason
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 54% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' IA Akranes · On: J. Vall · Off: B. Bodvarsson
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' S. Ottesen · Vikingur Reykjavik
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' IA Akranes · On: I. Gudjonsson · Off: G. Eyjolfsson
86′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes · V. Ingimundarson
86′⚽ GOAL · 17' Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes · A. Thrandarson
86′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes · M. P. Ellertsson (assist G. Eyjolfsson)
86′🟨 YELLOW · 51' O. Ekroth · Vikingur Reykjavik
86′⚽ GOAL · 53' Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes · O. Ekroth
86′SUBSTITUTION · 62' IA Akranes · On: G. E. Gislason J. · Off: G. Unnarsson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 63' IA Akranes · On: B. Atlason · Off: G. Thorarinsson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: D. Atlason · Off: S. Stefansson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: N. Hansen · Off: S. Gudjohnsen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 64' IA Akranes · On: H. Haraldsson · Off: S. Thorsteinsson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: D. Jonsson · Off: A. Finnbogason
86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' IA Akranes · On: J. Vall · Off: B. Bodvarsson
86′🟨 YELLOW · 81' S. Ottesen · Vikingur Reykjavik
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' IA Akranes · On: I. Gudjonsson · Off: G. Eyjolfsson
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' N. Hansen · Vikingur Reykjavik
89′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–96–1
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' E. T. Sandberg · IA Akranes
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 3% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Vikingur Reykjavik win 3%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 3% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
92′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 3% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 0% now
93′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 0% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 76% at kick-off, 42% now
FTFULL TIME Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes
FTVikingur Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes · Vikingur Reykjavik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vikingur Reykjavik win76%

Draw14%

IA Akranes win10%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:15

Line-ups

Vikingur Reykjavik

IA Akranes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vikingur Reykjavik

IA Akranes

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vikingur Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

29 A. Fridriksson

5 S. Stefansson

4 O. Ekroth

15 R. Thorkelsson

9 H. Gudjonsson

69 A. Finnbogason

8 V. Andrason

21 A. Thrandarson

77 S. Thordarson

25 V. Ingimundarson

27 S. Gudjohnsen

Coach · Solvi Ottesen

Substitutes

47 · O. Kristinsson

99 · U. Audunsson

2 · S. Thorkelsson

24 · D. Atlason

53 · D. Bjarnason

18 · D. Jonsson

23 · N. Hansen

52 · V. Bjarnason

40 · G. Hafthorsson

IA Akranes

Formation not confirmed

1 A. M. Einarsson

87 S. Ellertsson

13 E. T. Sandberg

5 B. Berndsen

21 B. Bodvarsson

17 G. Unnarsson

10 S. Thorsteinsson

8 G. Thorarinsson

11 G. Eyjolfsson

25 M. P. Ellertsson

9 V. Jonsson

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · I. Eidem

20 · I. Gudjonsson

3 · J. Vall

66 · G. E. Gislason J.

27 · B. Atlason

7 · H. Haraldsson

22 · O. Stefansson

44 · G. Saevarsson

18 · R. Thrastarson

Our number · vikingur reykjavik winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

76% The market63%

Us76%

~~Market~~63%

We make Vikingur Reykjavik a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vikingur reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vikingur Reykjavik win	76%	63%	+12
Draw	14%	19%	−5
IA Akranes win	10%	18%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	68%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	90%	88%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Vikingur Reykjavik or draw	90%	82%	+7
Vikingur Reykjavik clean sheet	36%	–	–
IA Akranes clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.0 1 5.6 5.8 3.0 2 8.1 8.2 4.2 3 7.9 8.0 4.1 4 5.8 5.9 3.0 5 3.5 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vikingur Reykjavik down, IA Akranes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 928 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.09 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vikingur Reykjavik at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). IA Akranes away: 2.17 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.95 goals for Vikingur Reykjavik, 1.03 for IA Akranes. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.09

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~IAA 2–2 VIK · VIK 4–0 IAA · IAA 0–1 VIK · VIK 2–1 IAA

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK

WWDDWW4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

IA AKRANES

WDDWLW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	25	+29	50
3	Fram Reykjavik	25	+11	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	25	−5	31
7	Stjarnan	25	−12	31
8	FH hafnarfjordur	25	−4	30
9	Keflavik	24	−8	29
10	KA Akureyri	25	−10	26
11	Thor Akureyri	25	−33	24
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	25	−16	19