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Model 1.2

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Vikingur Reykjavik v Fram Reykjavik

Vikingur Reykjavik
2–2Full time
Fram Reykjavik

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 Fram Reykjavik VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vikingur Reykjavik win73%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.281
The market’s Brier score1.055

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vikingur Reykjavik win at 73%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vikingur Reykjavik was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–15–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vikingur Reykjavik v Fram Reykjavik
  4. 11′10′: K. Konradsson on the scoresheet for Fram Reykjavik. 1–0 · 87–9–4
  5. 11′We published Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Vikingur Reykjavik 1–0 Fram Reykjavik
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 87% now
  8. 17′⚽ GOAL · 10' Vikingur Reykjavik 0–1 Fram Reykjavik · K. Konradsson (assist H. Asgrimsson)
  9. 17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Vikingur Reykjavik
  10. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 47% now
  11. 22′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–23–32
  12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 43% now
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 0–1 · 40–25–35
  14. 32′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–25–36
  15. 35′A. Thrandarson scores for Vikingur Reykjavik on 34′. 0–1 · 37–26–37
  16. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Vikingur Reykjavik 1–1 Fram Reykjavik · A. Thrandarson
  17. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 63% now
  18. 40′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 61%. 1–1 · 61–24–15
  19. 44′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–26–15
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Vikingur Reykjavik 1–1 Fram Reykjavik
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Vikingur Reykjavik 1–1 Fram Reykjavik
  22. 53′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–31–15
  23. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
  24. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Fram Reykjavik · On: J. Bystrom · Off: R. Hauksson
  25. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Fram Reykjavik · On: S. Tibbling · Off: K. Konradsson
  26. 57′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–2 · 22–30–48
  27. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' O. Ekroth · Vikingur Reykjavik
  28. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Vikingur Reykjavik 1–2 Fram Reykjavik
  29. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 22% now
  30. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Fram Reykjavik win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vikingur Reykjavik win 52%)
  31. 58′T. Thorbjornsson scores for Fram Reykjavik on 57′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 21–30–49
  32. 61′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–30–51
  33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: O. Borgthorsson · Off: S. Thordarson
  34. 67′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–29–57
  35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: V. Andrason · Off: A. Thrandarson
  36. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: S. Hauksson · Off: N. Hansen
  37. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 13% now
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fram Reykjavik · On: M. Aegisson · Off: Fred Saraiva
  39. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fram Reykjavik · On: I. Garcia · Off: H. Asgrimsson
  40. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 Fram Reykjavik
  41. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 39% now
  42. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Fram Reykjavik win 61%)
  43. 72′71′: V. Ingimundarson on the scoresheet for Vikingur Reykjavik, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–50–12
  44. 75′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–55–11
  45. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 33% now
  46. 78′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–62–10
  47. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fram Reykjavik · On: O. Hlynsson · Off: T. Thorbjornsson
  48. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' A. Finnbogason · Vikingur Reykjavik
  49. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 23% now
  50. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: S. Stefansson · Off: D. Atlason
  51. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: V. Bjarnason · Off: A. Finnbogason
  52. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 73% at kick-off, 13% now
  53. 90′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–88–3
  54. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' A. Jonasson · Fram Reykjavik
  55. FTFULL TIME Vikingur Reykjavik 2–2 Fram Reykjavik
  56. FTVikingur Reykjavik 2–2 Fram Reykjavik · Vikingur Reykjavik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vikingur Reykjavik are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vikingur Reykjavik 73%, draw 15%, Fram Reykjavik 12%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Vikingur Reykjavik v Fram ReykjavikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vikingur Reykjavik win73%
Draw15%
Fram Reykjavik win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:15

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vikingur Reykjavik

Fram Reykjavik

8Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 19 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vikingur reykjavik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
73% The market61%
Us73%
Market61%

We make Vikingur Reykjavik a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vikingur Reykjavik v Fram Reykjavik2.94 – 1.15
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 AugW3 D3 L0 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 53 v 451 v 2
The market · Vikingur Reykjavik win61% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:03
Our probability · Vikingur Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 73% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vikingur Reykjavik win73%61%+12
Draw15%20%−5
Fram Reykjavik win12%20%−8
Over 2.5 goals77%74%+3
Both teams to score64%68%−4
Over 1.5 goals91%87%+4
Over 3.5 goals58%55%+3
Vikingur Reykjavik or draw88%80%+8
Vikingur Reykjavik clean sheet32%––
Fram Reykjavik clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%
0123450 1 5.0 5.8 3.3 2 7.2 8.2 4.7 3 7.0 7.9 4.6 4 5.1 5.8 3.3 5 3.1 3.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vikingur Reykjavik down, Fram Reykjavik across0–5 goals a side shown (91.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.80
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsVIK 2–2 FRA · FRA 0–5 VIK · FRA 2–4 VIK · VIK 1–1 FRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 Aug

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK

DDWWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

FRAM REYKJAVIK

DDLDLL2–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627
9FH hafnarfjordur22−1221
10Thor Akureyri22−2821
11KA Akureyri22−1320
12IBV Vestmannaeyjar22−1318

The competition's standings before kick-off.