Valur Reykjavik v KA Akureyri prediction · Úrvalsdeild

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Valur Reykjavik 4–1 KA Akureyri VALUR REYKJAVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valur Reykjavik win~~56%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.299

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valur Reykjavik win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Valur Reykjavik 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–19–25
1′KICK-OFF Valur Reykjavik v KA Akureyri
23′A goal for Valur Reykjavik on 23′. 0–0 · 51–23–25
24′We said Valur Reykjavik at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Valur Reykjavik 1–0 KA Akureyri · M. Veldman (assist T. Haraldsson)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 75–16–10
30′KA Akureyri score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 50–25–25
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Valur Reykjavik 1–1 KA Akureyri
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 50% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' KA Akureyri
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Valur Reykjavik
45′HALF-TIME Valur Reykjavik 1–1 KA Akureyri
46′SECOND HALF Valur Reykjavik 1–1 KA Akureyri
48′We said Valur Reykjavik at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–31–24
48′30′: A. Palsson on the scoresheet for KA Akureyri, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 44–31–24
49′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 44–32–24
50′Valur Reykjavik find the net on 50′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–17–7
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Valur Reykjavik 2–1 KA Akureyri
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
51′We said Valur Reykjavik at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 2–1 · 76–17–7
59′We said Valur Reykjavik at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Valur Reykjavik 3–1 KA Akureyri
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
60′A goal for Valur Reykjavik on 60′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
62′D. Gardarson scores for Valur Reykjavik on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' KA Akureyri
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Valur Reykjavik win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' KA Akureyri · On: V. Saevarsson · Off: M. Thordarson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' KA Akureyri · On: J. Robertsson · Off: A. Palsson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' KA Akureyri · On: S. Kristinsson · Off: J. Pedersen
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Valur Reykjavik
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' KA Akureyri · On: B. Helgason · Off: G. Hrafnkelsson
84′We said Valur Reykjavik at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valur Reykjavik · On: H. Gunnarsson · Off: J. Palsson
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Valur Reykjavik · On: E. Sigurbjornsson · Off: S. Veseli
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Valur Reykjavik · On: O. Omarsson · Off: L. Heimisson
94′Valur Reykjavik score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Valur Reykjavik 4–1 KA Akureyri
95′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Valur Reykjavik 4–1 KA Akureyri
FTValur Reykjavik 4–1 KA Akureyri · Valur Reykjavik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valur Reykjavik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valur Reykjavik 56%, draw 19%, KA Akureyri 25%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Valur Reykjavik v KA AkureyriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Valur Reykjavik win56%

Draw19%

KA Akureyri win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

Line-ups

Valur Reykjavik

KA Akureyri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valur Reykjavik

KA Akureyri

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Valur Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

25 S. Agustsson

21 J. Palsson

4 M. Nakkim

15 H. Eyjolfsson

7 S. Fridjonsson

24 M. Veldman

29 S. Veseli

5 K. Arnarsson

17 L. Heimisson

19 D. Gardarson

12 T. Haraldsson

Coach · Christopher Brazell

Substitutes

1 · F. Schram

3 · H. Gunnarsson

16 · L. Kristjansson

20 · O. Omarsson

26 · E. Sigurbjornsson

27 · G. Heiddalur

30 · P. Eiriksson

45 · J. Wissler

95 · T. Petersson

KA Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Audunsson

30 G. Hrafnkelsson

28 H. Gudmundsson

6 A. Romer

23 M. M. Petursson

2 B. Baldvinsson

29 J. Arnason

21 M. Thordarson

10 H. Steingrimsson

8 J. Pedersen

7 A. Palsson

Coach · Hallgrimur Jonasson

Substitutes

14 · D. Djuric

16 · J. Robertsson

20 · D. Montiel

22 · H. Steingrimsson

25 · B. Helgason

32 · S. Johannsson

44 · V. Saevarsson

91 · S. Kristinsson

99 · J. Ingolfsson

Our number · valur reykjavik winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:24 · locked at kick-off

56% The market41%

Us56%

~~Market~~41%

We make Valur Reykjavik a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valur Reykjavik v KA Akureyri~~2.40 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 20~~8 v 11

~~The market · Valur Reykjavik win~~41% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valur Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. The market has gone from 46% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valur Reykjavik win	56%	41%	+15
Draw	19%	23%	−4
KA Akureyri win	25%	35%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Both teams to score	72%	75%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	90%	0
Over 3.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Valur Reykjavik or draw	75%	65%	+10
Valur Reykjavik clean sheet	21%	–	–
KA Akureyri clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.0 3.0 2.4 1 4.5 7.1 5.6 3.0 2 5.4 8.3 6.6 3.5 3 4.3 6.6 5.2 2.8 4 2.6 4.0 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valur Reykjavik down, KA Akureyri across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 932 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valur Reykjavik at home: 2.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). KA Akureyri away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Valur Reykjavik, 1.59 for KA Akureyri. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAL 4–4 KAA · KAA 0–1 VAL · KAA 2–5 VAL · VAL 3–1 KAA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug

VALUR REYKJAVIK

LDWWDL0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–5

KA AKUREYRI

LDWLWW3–5 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18