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Valur Reykjavik v FH hafnarfjordur

Valur Reykjavik

3–5Full time

FH hafnarfjordur

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Valur Reykjavik 3–5 FH hafnarfjordur VALUR REYKJAVIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valur Reykjavik win~~54%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.880

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valur Reykjavik win at 54%.
2′2′ and it is 0–1: A. Birgisson on the scoresheet for FH hafnarfjordur. 0–1 · 32–21–47
2′KICK-OFF Valur Reykjavik v FH hafnarfjordur
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Valur Reykjavik win: 54% at kick-off, 32% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' FH hafnarfjordur win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Valur Reykjavik win 32%)
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Valur Reykjavik 0–2 FH hafnarfjordur · A. Birgisson
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Valur Reykjavik 0–2 FH hafnarfjordur · T. Robertsson (assist B. Jonsson)
24′FH hafnarfjordur ahead on 16′ through T. Robertsson. 0–2. 0–2 · 11–15–74
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Valur Reykjavik win: 54% at kick-off, 11% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Valur Reykjavik 0–3 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason (assist J. Bjarnason)
45′SECOND HALF Valur Reykjavik 0–3 FH hafnarfjordur
47′G. Gislason scores for FH hafnarfjordur on 29′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–4–95
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Valur Reykjavik win: 54% at kick-off, 1% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Valur Reykjavik 1–3 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason
52′⚽ GOAL · 50' Valur Reykjavik 1–3 FH hafnarfjordur · D. Gardarson (assist L. Heimisson)
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Valur Reykjavik 1–3 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Valur Reykjavik 1–4 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Valur Reykjavik 1–5 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Valur Reykjavik · On: S. Veseli · Off: K. Arnarsson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Valur Reykjavik · On: M. Veldman · Off: H. Gunnarsson
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' K. Finnbogason · FH hafnarfjordur
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FH hafnarfjordur · On: G. Tryggvason · Off: K. Finnbogason
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FH hafnarfjordur · On: S. Hjaltested · Off: A. Birgisson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Valur Reykjavik · On: J. Palsson · Off: I. Stole
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Valur Reykjavik · On: J. Palsson · Off: I. Stole
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Valur Reykjavik · On: J. Palsson · Off: I. Stole
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FH hafnarfjordur · On: A. Gudmundsson · Off: B. Jonsson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FH hafnarfjordur · On: B. Thorsson · Off: G. Gislason
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Valur Reykjavik 2–5 FH hafnarfjordur · G. Gislason
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Valur Reykjavik 2–5 FH hafnarfjordur · J. Palsson (assist J. Jonsson)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FH hafnarfjordur · On: A. Svavarsson · Off: K. Halldorsson
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' L. Heimisson · Valur Reykjavik
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Valur Reykjavik 3–5 FH hafnarfjordur · J. Palsson
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Valur Reykjavik 3–5 FH hafnarfjordur · S. Veseli
FTFULL TIME Valur Reykjavik 3–5 FH hafnarfjordur
FTValur Reykjavik 3–5 FH hafnarfjordur · Valur Reykjavik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Valur Reykjavik win54%

Draw21%

FH hafnarfjordur win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Valur Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Schram

11 I. Stole

4 M. Nakkim

15 H. Eyjolfsson

3 H. Gunnarsson

5 K. Arnarsson

7 S. Fridjonsson

10 J. Jonsson

19 D. Gardarson

17 L. Heimisson

12 T. Haraldsson

Coach · Christopher Brazell

Substitutes

95 · T. Petersson

24 · M. Veldman

21 · J. Palsson

29 · S. Veseli

26 · E. Sigurbjornsson

30 · G. Heiddalur

FH hafnarfjordur

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Andresson

2 B. Jonsson

22 I. Olafsson

5 O. Stefansson

37 B. Helgason

17 J. Bjarnason

23 T. Robertsson

32 G. Gislason

7 K. Halldorsson

14 A. Birgisson

9 K. Finnbogason

Coach · Joey Gudjonsson

Substitutes

24 · D. Arnarsson

6 · G. Gunnarsson

38 · A. Gudmundsson

31 · A. Matus

35 · A. Purisevic

10 · S. Hjaltested

11 · G. Tryggvason

8 · A. Svavarsson

39 · B. Thorsson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Valur Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Schram

11 I. Stole

4 M. Nakkim

15 H. Eyjolfsson

3 H. Gunnarsson

5 K. Arnarsson

7 S. Fridjonsson

10 J. Jonsson

19 D. Gardarson

17 L. Heimisson

12 T. Haraldsson

Coach · Christopher Brazell

Substitutes

95 · T. Petersson

24 · M. Veldman

21 · J. Palsson

29 · S. Veseli

26 · E. Sigurbjornsson

30 · G. Heiddalur

FH hafnarfjordur

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Andresson

2 B. Jonsson

22 I. Olafsson

5 O. Stefansson

37 B. Helgason

17 J. Bjarnason

23 T. Robertsson

32 G. Gislason

7 K. Halldorsson

14 A. Birgisson

9 K. Finnbogason

Coach · Joey Gudjonsson

Substitutes

24 · D. Arnarsson

6 · G. Gunnarsson

38 · A. Gudmundsson

31 · A. Matus

35 · A. Purisevic

10 · S. Hjaltested

11 · G. Tryggvason

8 · A. Svavarsson

39 · B. Thorsson

Our number · valur reykjavik winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market42%

Us54%

~~Market~~42%

We make Valur Reykjavik a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valur Reykjavik win	54%	42%	+11
Draw	21%	23%	−3
FH hafnarfjordur win	26%	34%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Both teams to score	68%	73%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Valur Reykjavik or draw	74%	66%	+9
Valur Reykjavik clean sheet	23%	–	–
FH hafnarfjordur clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.9 3.8 2.9 1 5.7 8.4 6.1 3.0 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.5 6.5 4.7 2.3 4 2.5 3.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valur Reykjavik down, FH hafnarfjordur across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 924 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 3.47 goals a meeting; 9 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valur Reykjavik at home: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). FH hafnarfjordur away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Valur Reykjavik, 1.46 for FH hafnarfjordur. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.47

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 15

~~Both scored~~10 of 15

~~Last meetings~~FHH 2–0 VAL · VAL 3–0 FHH · VAL 4–4 FHH · VAL 3–1 FHH

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

VALUR REYKJAVIK

DLDWWD4–4 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

FH HAFNARFJORDUR

LDWLWW2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	24	+28	47
3	Fram Reykjavik	24	+12	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	24	−3	31
7	Stjarnan	24	−9	31
8	Keflavik	24	−8	29
9	FH hafnarfjordur	24	−6	27
10	KA Akureyri	24	−13	23
11	Thor Akureyri	24	−34	21
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	24	−15	19