Thor Akureyri v Stjarnan prediction · Úrvalsdeild

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Thor Akureyri 3–1 Stjarnan STJARNAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stjarnan win~~49%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stjarnan win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stjarnan was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Thor Akureyri v Stjarnan
5′⚽ GOAL · 3' Thor Akureyri 0–1 Stjarnan · O. Eggertsson (assist E. Atlason)
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Stjarnan win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
6′Stjarnan ahead on 3′ through O. Eggertsson. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–16–71
6′We published Stjarnan at 49%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 13–16–71
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' S. Jonsson · Stjarnan
12′A. Arnarsson scores for Thor Akureyri on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–24–47
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Thor Akureyri 1–1 Stjarnan · A. Arnarsson
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Stjarnan win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
13′Much as we predicted: Stjarnan was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 1–1 · 29–24–47
20′19′: S. Ingason on the scoresheet for Thor Akureyri, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 54–23–23
20′We said Stjarnan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–1 · 54–23–23
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Thor Akureyri 2–1 Stjarnan · S. Ingason
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Stjarnan win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Thor Akureyri win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Stjarnan win 23%)
33′We said Stjarnan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 57–24–19
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Stjarnan win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' K. Vazquez · Thor Akureyri
45′HALF-TIME Thor Akureyri 2–1 Stjarnan
46′SECOND HALF Thor Akureyri 2–1 Stjarnan
47′We said Stjarnan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–25–14
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' G. Kjeldsen · Stjarnan
58′Thor Akureyri ahead on 58′ through T. Ingolfsson. 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Thor Akureyri 3–1 Stjarnan · T. Ingolfsson
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Stjarnan win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
59′We said Stjarnan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
59′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 90–8–2
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stjarnan · On: C. Alexandersson · Off: G. Kjeldsen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stjarnan · On: A. Bjarnason · Off: B. Hauksson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stjarnan · On: A. Vilhjalmsson · Off: E. Atlason
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' A. Hauksson · Stjarnan
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Leifsson · Stjarnan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Stjarnan · On: B. Saemundsson · Off: J. Gunnarsson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stjarnan · On: A. Bjornsson · Off: A. Leifsson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Thor Akureyri · On: R. Ragnarsson · Off: B. Brynjolfsson
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Thor Akureyri · On: F. Gislason · Off: E. Halldorsson
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' A. Bjornsson · Stjarnan
FTFULL TIME Thor Akureyri 3–1 Stjarnan
FTThor Akureyri 3–1 Stjarnan · Stjarnan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stjarnan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thor Akureyri 29%, draw 22%, Stjarnan 49%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Thor Akureyri v StjarnanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Thor Akureyri win29%

Draw22%

Stjarnan win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

VenueThorsvollur

Line-ups

Thor Akureyri

Stjarnan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thor Akureyri

Stjarnan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Thor Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Stefansson

18 S. Ingason

6 G. Gudbrandsson

2 A. Arnarsson

15 K. Kristjansson

23 K. Vazquez

35 T. Ingolfsson

8 E. Halldorsson

16 B. Brynjolfsson

22 A. Hlynsson

25 C. Jakobsen

Coach · Sigurdur Hoskuldsson

Substitutes

28 · F. Lalic

5 · Y. Affi

19 · R. Ragnarsson

27 · H. Brynjarsson

7 · A. Sigurjonsson

4 · H. Runarsson

10 · A. Magnusson

17 · F. Gislason

30 · P. Helgason

Stjarnan

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Olafsson

14 B. Hauksson

19 A. Leifsson

24 S. Jonsson

3 G. Kjeldsen

29 A. Hauksson

8 J. Gunnarsson

7 O. Eggertsson

18 G. Nokkvason

11 B. Ingason

22 E. Atlason

Coach · Jokull Elisabetarson

Substitutes

1 · D. Bergmann Gylfason

6 · S. T. Ingimarsson

21 · I. Turay

35 · B. Saemundsson

25 · C. Alexandersson

37 · B. Bjornsson

99 · A. Bjarnason

94 · A. Vilhjalmsson

36 · A. Bjornsson

Our number · stjarnan winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market38%

Us49%

~~Market~~38%

We make Stjarnan a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thor Akureyri v Stjarnan~~1.47 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 28~~10 v 7

~~The market · Stjarnan win~~38% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stjarnan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thor Akureyri win	29%	37%	−8
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Stjarnan win	49%	38%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	69%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Thor Akureyri or draw	51%	62%	−11
Thor Akureyri clean sheet	15%	–	–
Stjarnan clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 6.5 6.2 4.0 1 4.9 9.4 8.9 5.8 2.8 2 3.6 6.8 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 3.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thor Akureyri down, Stjarnan across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 932 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thor Akureyri at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stjarnan away: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Thor Akureyri, 1.94 for Stjarnan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~STJ 4–2 THO · THO 1–3 STJ · THO 0–1 STJ · THO 5–1 STJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug

THOR AKUREYRI

LWWLLW2–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0

STJARNAN

WWDWLL4–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18